Giants vs. Patriots Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Daniel Jones
- Our experts reveal their favorite Thursday Night Football picks for Giants at Patriots.
- See how they're betting the spread and which player prop bets offer the best value.
Giants at Patriots Betting Odds & Picks
- Odds: Patriots -17
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX/NFL Network
Odds as of noon ET on Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
There’s a lot to factor in when betting this Thursday Night Football matchup.
There’s the windy (and potentially wet) conditions in Foxborough. There’s the long list of Giants offensive starters who have been ruled out. Then there’s that 17-point spread.
So how are our experts approaching this game? They detail their favorite bets below, including a prop and two picks against the spread.
Matthew Freedman: Cody Latimer Under 2.5 Receptions (-114)
With Sterling Shepard (concussion) on the sideline, Latimer is now the top outside receiver for the Giants, which means he’s likely to be shadowed by Patriots No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Gilmore has held receivers a lot better than Latimer to just 3.6 receptions per game with a 52.9% catch rate, and quarterback Daniel Jones seems likelier to direct his targets to No. 1 wide receiver Golden Tate, who plays primarily in the slot and has a much easier matchup.
And with the expected weather conditions (heavy winds and rain), it’s likely that the Giants will scale back their passing attack and instead look to move the ball with the ground game.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Latimer projected for just 2.0 receptions. I would bet the under down to -135.
Sean Koerner: Daniel Jones Under 1 Passing TD (-120)
Most books are offering this prop at 0.5, which is essentially a proposition of “Will Daniel Jones throw a TD?” If the under for that prop is anything north of +150, I actually like those odds.
The Patriots have yet to allow a passing touchdown this season, yet have racked up 11 interceptions. This is simply a brutal matchup for Jones, but there are even more negative factors in play. For starters, the Giants have already ruled out Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, so Jones is without three of his favorite targets. To make matters even worse, the weather is expected to call for rain and wind gusts (up to 30 mph).
This is a recipe for disaster and I love the idea of getting under 1 as insurance for the potential he does happen to throw a TD. It’s much more likely he throws for no touchdowns than he does for two or more.
Here are my projected chances for exact number of TD passes Jones throws:
Essentially, there’s a 41.5% chance you win the bet, a 36.5% chance it’s a push and 22% it’s a loser, so factoring out the push it’s about a 65% chance of winning. I would take the under 1 at anything better than -180 odds.
Freedman: Patriots -17
Although I am not a “trends bettor,” I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games. So using the Bet Labs database, I’ve uncovered one trend that catches my eye for Thursday night.
Since 2003, the Patriots are 156-97-8 against the spread in the regular season, good for an A-graded 21.0% return on investment. They’re even better when playing outside of the division with a 100-58-4 ATS record (24.4% ROI). They present a significant challenge to teams that are unfamiliar with them.
Against teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season, they are 109-58-5 ATS (27.5% ROI). Under head coach Bill Belichick, the Pats are the type of team that historically has outperformed expectations against poor teams.
And what about when they have played non-divisional non-playoff teams? They have a 61-25-1 ATS record (39.1% ROI).
I bet the Patriots at -15.5 earlier in the week, and while I don’t feel as good about it at -17, I would bet them until that point.
Mike Randle: Patriots -17
The Patriots have the NFL’s best overall defense and face a rookie quarterback at home in primetime.
While the Patriots only 3-2 against the spread, including a disappointing backdoor cover by the Jets in Week 3, there are just not enough available offensive weapons for the Giants to keep this game close.
The Patriots defense has been playing at such a superior level that I’m comfortable giving the large spread. Even if they lean on the run throughout the second half, their running backs will continue to generate enough offense to cover the big number.