Packers-Vikings SNF Betting Preview: Back Aaron Rodgers as a Small Underdog?

Betting odds: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Vikings -3
• Over/Under: 47.5
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV channel: NBC

Betting market: The Packers have been way more popular, and sportsbooks apparently haven't been able to keep up with the action. Some books have moved from +4 to +3.5, while other have gone from +3.5 to +3.

With Green Bay commanding more than 70% of bets as of writing (see live data here), it'll be interesting to see whether the Packers can move past the key number of +3 to +2.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Aaron Rodgers is 38-20 against the spread vs. the NFC North. This is just the seventh time he's been listed as an underdog against a division rival. In the previous six games, he's 0-5-1 straight-up and 3-3 ATS. — John Ewing

Rodgers will make his 13th start inside of a dome since the 2014 season (including playoffs). The Packers averaged only 22.1 points per game in the previous 12 games and are just 4-8 straight-up and 5-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 points per game.

The defense allowed an average of 29.8 points in those 12, including 30 or more points in seven of them. — Evan Abrams

Did you know?Rodgers and the Packers have lost seven consecutive games SU on the road, which is the longest road losing streak of his career.

Prior to this, Rodgers had only lost five straight road games … in 2008. The Packers' current seven-game road losing streak is their longest as a franchise since 1978-79, when they lost nine consecutive road games. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Vikings' situational defense

The Vikings can't run the ball, and the Packers struggle to defend the run. The Packers rank second in yards per attempt (5.1), while the Vikings excel at defending the run, ranking second at only 3.6 yards per rush allowed.

Injuries at receiver have really hurt the Packers on third downs, while injuries in their secondary will hurt against Kirk Cousins and his reliable targets.

Both offenses have been fairly average on third downs — the Vikings have been a little better, ranking 17th vs. the Packers at 19th — but Minnesota’s defense ranks first in third-down defense at a stingy 28.32%, which is right in line with its league-leading 2017 clip. That’s almost seven percentage points better than the Bears, who rank second in the conference.

Green Bay’s defense has actually performed OK on third down, but is still significantly worse than Minnesota. The Packers still haven’t been nearly as good on the road, where they're 0-5.

The Vikings rank No. 1 in red-zone defense, allowing teams to score only touchdowns on 40% of trips, while the Packers have allowed teams to get in the end zone at higher than a 55% clip.

Minnesota is also much more likely to force turnovers, as it ranks in the top 10 in takeaways per game while Green Bay ranks 22nd and has only one interception in its past three games since trading safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix.

That’s not surprising with the amount of rookies the Packers are relying on due to that trade and a number of injuries in the defensive backfield.

In a game that should be close, keeping the chains moving, converting in the red zone and a key turnover will likely be the difference.

The Vikings certainly have the edge in all three departments against a Packers team that's playing its fourth road game in its past five. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Vikings

The Vikings are dealing with injuries to safety Andrew Sendejo (groin), left guard Tom Compton (knee), right guard Mike Remmers (lower back) and linebacker Anthony Barr (hamstring). The good news is that stud receiver Adam Thielen (calf, lower back) is expected to suit up.

Meanwhile, the Packers face question marks with tight end Jimmy Graham (thumb, knee), cornerbacks Kevin King (hamstring) and Bashaud Breeland (groin), along with front-seven starters Nick Perry (knee) and Mike Daniels (foot).

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Davante Adams won his first matchup against Xavier Rhodes this season, catching 8-of-12 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers' undisputed No. 1 wide receiver has managed to find the end zone in each of his past three matchups against the Vikings.

Overall, Adams has scored a touchdown or surpassed 100 receiving yards in 24-of-33 games (73%) with Rodgers under center since 2016.

Adams deserves to be mentioned alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown as the league’s most-matchup proof receivers, even in this brutally tough matchup against Rhodes. Adams is $8,000 on DraftKings and boasts a sensational 29.8-point projected ceiling. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Packers +3

As Stuckey mentioned, the Packers are playing their fourth road game in five weeks, and the Vikings have been tougher at home on quarterbacks than any other team since head coach Mike Zimmer was hired in 2014, holding opponents to a league-low 201.6 net passing yards per game.

But the Packers are in an absolute must-win situation, they've had extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football, and Rodgers has an A-graded 36-20-0 record ATS within division, which has been good for a 25.9% return on investment for Rodgers backers.

In fact, within our Bet Labs database, no quarterback has returned more money to in-division investors than Rodgers. And when Rodgers has had 10-plus days between games, he's 13-4-2 ATS with an impressive 4.21-point cover margin and 43.9% ROI. — Matthew Freedman

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.