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Texans-Broncos Betting Preview: Matchup Drawing Two-Way Sharp Action

Nov 04, 2018 12:50 PM EST

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson, Von Miller

Betting odds: Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

  • Spread: Broncos -1
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: The Texans are commanding more than 70% of the bets as of writing (see live data here), but sharps pushed the Broncos from -1 to -3 early on. Buyback on the Texans moved the line down to a pick ’em, opening the door for more sharp action on the Broncos, pushing them back to -1 again.

This two-way affair seems to be all about the numbers, so make sure you get a good one regardless of which side you’re on. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Texans have won five in a row. Since 2003, teams that are on winning streaks of five or more games yet listed as an underdog have gone 34-36-4 against the spread in the regular season, per our Bet Labs data. But small underdogs have performed better. 

  • Underdog of three or fewer points: 24-13-1 ATS
  • Underdog of more than three points: 10-23-3 ATS John Ewing

Case Keenum is 12-6 ATS when facing an opponent with a record better than .500, covering the spread by an average of 4.3 points per game. He’s 2-1 ATS in such games this season, having played the Chiefs (twice) and the Rams in this spot. All three were one-possession games.

Since Keenum’s first start in 2013, he’s been the fifth-most profitable quarterback when facing opponents with records above .500.

1. Drew Brees: +10.8 units
2. Tom Brady: +9.5 units
3. Ben Roethlisberger: +8.9 units
4. Russell Wilson: +5.1 units
5. Keenum: +5 units Evan Abrams



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