Texans-Broncos Betting Preview: Matchup Drawing Two-Way Sharp Action

Betting odds: Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

• Spread: Broncos -1
• Over/Under: 46
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The Texans are commanding more than 70% of the bets as of writing (see live data here), but sharps pushed the Broncos from -1 to -3 early on. Buyback on the Texans moved the line down to a pick 'em, opening the door for more sharp action on the Broncos, pushing them back to -1 again.

This two-way affair seems to be all about the numbers, so make sure you get a good one regardless of which side you’re on. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Texans have won five in a row. Since 2003, teams that are on winning streaks of five or more games yet listed as an underdog have gone 34-36-4 against the spread in the regular season, per our Bet Labs data. But small underdogs have performed better.

• Underdog of three or fewer points: 24-13-1 ATS
• Underdog of more than three points: 10-23-3 ATS — John Ewing

Case Keenum is 12-6 ATS when facing an opponent with a record better than .500, covering the spread by an average of 4.3 points per game. He's 2-1 ATS in such games this season, having played the Chiefs (twice) and the Rams in this spot. All three were one-possession games.

Since Keenum’s first start in 2013, he's been the fifth-most profitable quarterback when facing opponents with records above .500.

1. Drew Brees: +10.8 units
2. Tom Brady: +9.5 units
3. Ben Roethlisberger: +8.9 units
4. Russell Wilson: +5.1 units
5. Keenum: +5 units — Evan Abrams

Did you know? In Deshaun Watson's 14 career starts, he's thrown 14 interceptions and has nine total fumbles (including two lost). Sunday will be his first start in which the Texans are coming off consecutive games in which they won the turnover battle.

Watson is 0-3 straight up on the road after the Texans won the turnover battle in their previous game.— Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Broncos' pass rush vs. Texans' offensive line

The Broncos defense is ranked third in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate, while the Texans' offensive line ranks just 29th in the metric.

Watson has been pressured on a league-high 45.1% of his dropbacks this season, per Pro Football Focus. It certainly doesn’t help that it takes him 3.14 seconds to throw the ball on average, which is the second-longest mark in the league, per NextGenStats. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Broncos

It’s unclear whether Texans wide receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring) will return to the lineup to help replace Will Fuller (torn ACL). The offense will at least welcome back tight end Ryan Griffin (illness), but outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney (groin), cornerback Johnathan Joseph (ankle) and linebacker Zach Cunningham (knee) are all banged up.

The Broncos defense is also dealing with injuries to starters, including cornerback Bradley Roby (ankle), linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee) and safety Darian Stewart (neck). But Von Miller (knee) and right tackle Jared Veldheer (knee) should be good to go for Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Demaryius Thomas trade locks in Denver's Courtland Sutton as a building block on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 9. Thomas’ departure will free up 20% of the Broncos' overall target share and 20.5% of their red-zone target share, which should bode well for Sutton.

Sutton is $3,900 on DraftKings with a slate-high +5.43 Projected Plus/Minus in our FantasyLabs Models. — Bailey

Bet to watch: Broncos -1

Christmas has arrived early and the Broncos have finally delivered on #FreeCourtlandSutton.

Thomas' first game after his trade-deadline move is back in Denver against the Broncos. The loss of Fuller has a significant impact on the Texans' offense and I think DT is washed. Plus the Broncos' advantage with their defensive line against the Texans' offensive line will be the difference in this game.

Be careful: I am a Broncos homer and very biased toward Sutton, but I love this spot.— Peter Jennings

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.