Jaguars-Texans Betting Preview: Will Blake Bortles & Co. Play Spoiler in Houston?

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -6.5
• Over/Under: 40
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: After opening as 9-point favorites on Sunday night, the Texans had fallen to -7 by Christmas.

Though there was some buyback to move the line to -7.5 on Wednesday morning, the line moved through the key number of seven to -6.5 by Wednesday afternoon.

Our money percentages show that the Jaguars, who are getting fewer than 40% of bets, are getting just about half the cash at the time of writing (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Did you know? Blake Bortles has made three trips to Houston to face the Texans in his career, and things haven’t gone great. Bortles has a 54.5 passer rating and is averaging just five yards per attempt in H-Town. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Texans have a shot to be the 1-seed, 2-seed and 6-seed. But it's most likely they'll be the AFC's No. 3 after suffering a costly loss in Week 16.

Our simulations give Houston a 53.5% chance to be the 3-seed, which would only require a win vs. the Jaguars.

If the Texans lose, they'd move down to the 6-seed and the winner of Colts-Titans would win the AFC South and take over the 3-seed.

Houston could still lose to the Jags and win the AFC South if the Colts and Titans tie on Sunday Night Football, but that's very unlikely. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Calais Campbell vs. the Texans O-line

It doesn’t matter where Campbell lines up this weekend. There is nobody on the Texans who can contain his pass rush. It is Campbell, not Khalil Mack or J.J Watt, who's actually Pro Football Focus' highest graded edge-rusher this season:

• Campbell 90.9
• Khalil Mack 90.6
• J.J. Watt 90.2
• Trey Flowers 89.6
• Cam Jordan 89.5

He will take on what I feel is the worst offensive line in all of football. And the advanced metrics agree, as the Texans rank 32nd in adjusted sack rate and have allowed a league-high 56 sacks.

The Jags have two of the most talented corners in the league, and both are capable of staying with DeAndre Hopkins.

The Texans really don’t have many other options in the passing game as a result of the group being decimated by injury. Campbell is going to wreak havoc in the backfield on Sunday in Houston. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

Bortles will be under center this week, but Leonard Fournette (foot, ankle) appears to be trending toward a week off after being downgraded to a DNP on Thursday.

Kicker Josh Lambo (groin) and ace cornerback A.J. Bouye (toe) are also candidates to land on the inactive list, but the offense should at least welcome back field-stretcher D.J. Chark (quad).

The Texans aren’t overly banged up themselves, as only linebacker Benardrick McKinney (foot), slot receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring), defensive tackle Brandon Dunn (ankle) along with cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph (neck) and Kareem Jackson (knee) appear to be at risk of missing Sunday’s game.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Hopkins is the league's premiere contested-catch artist and possesses enough chemistry with Deshaun Watson to win any matchup. With that said, Jags CB Jalen Ramsey has at least made life difficult during their three-season rivalry.

• 2016 Week 10: 5 receptions-48 yards-0 TDs (13 targets)
• 2016 Week 15: 8-87-0 (17)
• 2017 Week 1: 7-55-1 (16)
• 2017 Week 15: 4-80-1 (13)
• 2018 Week 7: 3-50-1 (8)

The only question is if Ramsey will travel with Hopkins like he has during the majority of their five career matchups.

The Jaguars haven't asked him to lineup as the defense's right cornerback in three straight games, although the Titans, Redskins and Dolphins also don't exactly possess a No. 1 receiver that needs to be shadowed (sorry Corey Davis).

Hopkins costs $8,100 on DraftKings and boasts a strong +2.8 Projected Plus/Minus in our FantasyLabs Models. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Jaguars +6.5

For a team that came within a few plays of the Super Bowl last season, a Week 17 spoiler role is the Jags' Super Bowl in 2018. I already mentioned how I think  Campbell can disrupt the backfield and I think Jacksonville will be able to keep DeAndre Hopkins quiet, which would essentially shut down Houston's passing attack.

In the first meeting (20-7 Texans win), Watson only threw for 139 yards and six of his 12 completions went to Will Fuller, who is out for the year.

On the other side of the ball, I think Bortles can carry some of the momentum from last week against a vulnerable Texans secondary in what will basically serve as a job audition for him.

As with most Week 17 NFL games between a contender and eliminated team, we are getting value with the lame duck, which can play looser in a game they should want to show up for — not only for job auditions, but to play spoiler and to avenge an earlier season loss to a division rival.

That loss should give Bortles a little extra motivation, too, as it was the game he was benched for Cody Kessler.  — Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.