Vikings vs Jets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Fade Minnesota in NFL Week 13

Vikings vs Jets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Fade Minnesota in NFL Week 13 article feature image

Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike White.

Vikings vs Jets Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
1 p.m. ET
Vikings Odds
-105o / -115u
Jets Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

One week after head coach Robert Saleh decided to bench Zach Wilson for Mike White, the Jets travel to Minnesota with some real respect in the betting market. The market has been lower than the public perception on the Vikings for weeks now, and the 9-2 Vikings are just three-point home favorites against the 7-4 Jets … with the Jets' backup quarterback starting

That line seems short based on perception, but the reality is White looked much better last week than Wilson has all season. The Jets have a significantly better defense, they can get pressure on Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins and the Vikings aren't nearly as good as their gleaming record seems to indicate.

White didn't do anything special last week in the win against the Chicago Bears, but he did more than enough of the simple things to trust the Jets catching a field goal in Minnesota this week. This matchup all comes down to which quarterback will be under more pressure, and White should be comfortable in the pocket and not exposed for his potential deficiencies.

Jets vs. Vikings Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Vikings match up statistically:

Jets vs. Vikings DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA1923
Pass DVOA1327
Rush DVOA1816
Overall DVOA214
Pass DVOA235
Rush DVOA156

Minnesota does come into this matchup with extra rest after another win in which the final score made the Vikings performance look much better than the underlying statistics. The Vikings have nine wins by single digits and only beat New England because of some very fluky high-leverage plays — the kick return for a touchdown, the Patriots touchdown catch that was overturned and ruled incomplete and the roughing the punter that extended the Vikings' game-winning drive.

The Vikings deserve credit for taking advantage of every small opportunity and bounce that has gone their way. They've been excellent in the fourth quarters of games and when trailing this year. But that doesn't mean those types of bounces will continue to go their way. If you get down to the bare bones and remove as much variance as possible, Minnesota is relatively average.

The Vikings are 30th in net yards per play this season, ahead of only the Texans and Steelers. The defense is allowing 6.1 yards per play, which is second worst in the NFL, ahead of only the Lions.  We can use DVOA, where the Vikings defense is 23rd overall and 27th against the pass. The defense gets almost no pressure on opposing quarterbacks as the Vikings are 27th in pass rush win rate.

Bet New York vs. Minnesota at FanDuel

The defense is extremely soft and that should only make life easier for White and the Jets. The Vikings play a two-deep shell defensively and White can succeed with underneath throws, showcasing his decision making and accuracy. White doesn't have a great arm, but you can beat the Minnesota defense underneath.

Let's flip to the other side of the ball. White should be able to move the ball on Minnesota, but Cousins might find it much more difficult against the Jets defense. The strength of the Jets defense is rookie corner Sauce Gardner. He's been stellar and can match up with Justin Jefferson at various points of the game. You can't take Jefferson out of the game entirely, he's too good, but you can limit his explosiveness and Gardner is more than capable of matching up.

The Jets are a top six defense against the run and top five against the pass. It's a top-four unit overall by DVOA and they sit 10th in pass rush win rate. The Vikings horrendous loss at home against Dallas is a sign of what happens when teams are able to get pressure consistently on Cousins. The Eagles did the same back in Week 2. The two teams that beat the Vikings were able to pressure Cousins and had good corners behind that pressure.

The Jets aren't as good as those two teams, but there's a case that the Jets defense is better than both Dallas and Philadelphia. Cousins' numbers, per PFF, collapse once he's under pressure and he should be under duress in this matchup.

Betting Picks

Based on our Action Network luck rankings, the Vikings have been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL this season. It's almost impossible to have a 9-2 record with an almost even point differential and one of the worst yards per play differentials in the entire league.

The Jets offense looked like an entirely different unit last week once White came in and they were facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Bears. White is still playing and the Vikings defense is just as soft in the secondary as the Bears.

Given that the Vikings needed late scores to comeback and beat the Lions, Saints, Commanders and Patriots, don't be surprised if this game also comes down to a coin flip near the end. And while the Vikings have had every coin come up heads for them this year — even down to their turnover variance — that won't happen forever.

The Jets are the value side in this matchup, and I'd play them at +3 or better.

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