The Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) and Atlanta Falcons (3-6) meet today in NFL Week 10. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread, with the over/under set at 47.5. Kansas City is a -168 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Atlanta is a +142 underdog.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs Falcons predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 15.
Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction
- Chiefs vs Falcons pick: Falcons +3.5 (-120)
My Chiefs vs. Falcons best bet is Atlanta to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google and download the Action Network app for more NFL picks and analysis!
Chiefs vs Falcons Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -168 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +142 |
- Chiefs vs Falcons Spread: Chiefs -3.5, Falcons +3.5
- Chiefs vs Falcons Total: 47.5
- Chiefs vs Falcons Moneyline: Chiefs -168, Falcons +142
Chiefs vs Falcons NFL Week 10 Preview
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Chiefs are rolling into Atlanta in a very questionable spot as this marks their third road game in four weeks. Despite the brand name and the record, this is simply not the same Chiefs offense of old.
Patrick Mahomes suffered an injury to his throwing elbow last week against the Jets and likely won't be 100% for this game even if he suits up. Over the last four games, his average depth of target (aDOT) and air yards have plummeted, sitting at 3.6, 4.7, 4.7, and 3.6.
The Chiefs' downfield passing attack is virtually non-existent at this point. They are leaning heavily on the short, dink-and-dunk passing game, and that will probably continue following the addition of Josh Downs.
Mahomes is having his worst year by far when facing defensive pressure. If you can collapse the pocket on him, the explosive plays vanish and the offense gets bogged down.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
We might have officially reached the bottom of the market for the Falcons.
After an ugly showing against the Bengals in Spain, the perception of this Atlanta team is in the gutter. However, the spot and the situational variance favor the Falcons at home.
The one thing Atlanta's defense genuinely does well is generate pressure on the quarterback. It is top-five in the NFL in that regard. And When you pair an elite pass rush against this version of Patrick Mahomes who is statistically having the worst season of his career under pressure, you have a recipe for defensive stops.
The Chiefs will try to run the ball down Atlanta's throat with Kenneth Walker III, but Atlanta's defense is better than what it has showed in recent weeks.
Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a weird, disjointed spot for Kansas City on the road.
The Chiefs offense lacks their usual bite, and they are facing a defense built to exploit Mahomes' current struggles under pressure.
The variance and situational angles all point to the home underdog keeping this within a field goal.
Pick: Falcons +3.5 (-120)
