Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 10 on Sunday, November 15.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 10.
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Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Bills vs Jets |
| Jaguars vs Titans |
| Chiefs vs Falcons |
| Dolphins vs Colts |
| Texans vs Browns |
| Panthers vs Saints |
| Vikings vs Packers |
| Seahawks vs Raiders |
| Rams vs Cardinals |
| 49ers vs Cowboys |
Bills vs. Jets
Another Bills game, another week of betting DJ Moore to score a TD. He’s finally off the injury report, and while he didn’t do much against the Vikings last week (a tough ask), he’s still effective when he’s on the field.
Moore has really only played in four games this season after missing time with injuries, but in the games he’s played, he leads the team in targets per route run (TPRR) and total routes run while seeing three end-zone targets and scoring a touchdown.
Moore is a bona fide WR1 for Josh Allen and the Bills — as long as the veteran is healthy, we can’t pass on him at +200 or better.
I think there’s upside across the board for Jets TD scorers, and while I can make a case for almost each wide receiver, the one I think has the best shot to score is Garrett Wilson at +240.
It’s been an up-and-down year for Wilson, who has scored three TDs this season, but has been held in check over his last four games with the emergences of Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr.
However, Wilson's still getting target volume that makes his TD odds seem a bit out of whack. In the last four games where all three players were on the field, Wilson ran the most routes (93%) while also seeing five end-zone targets in that stretch.
You can tell the Jets are trying to find ways to get him a score, and after getting past the trade deadline, I expect Wilson to ball out and the Jets to reward his loyalty.
VERDICT: DJ Moore +210 | Garrett Wilson +240
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Jaguars vs. Titans
The Jaguars are all in on this season after making some massive trades, and this game features my Touchdown Show co-host Sean Koerner’s best bet of the week: Chris Rodriguez to score a TD against the Titans.
RB1 Bhayshul Tuten is expected to play in this game, but he missed some practice this week so he's likely not 100%.
Rodriguez could be in line for a huge role in this game if the Jaguars get into a leading game script. The Jags are 10.5-point road favorites against a Titans squad that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA against the run and has allowed the opposing RB1 to score on them in all but two games.
Given their lead in the standings, it would make sense to limit Tuten’s workload in a matchup that the Jaguars should dominate, and with some of their improvements on offense, Jacksonville may end up seeing some shorter fields for Rodriguez to punch it in.
WR Carnell Tate will miss another week for the Titans, and outside of him, it’s grim for playmakers on the Tennessee side.
The only “weakness” that Jacksonville has displayed so far this season is against WR1s — but with Tate out, who is the guy?
I’m quite not ready to say it’s Chimere Dike, but he checks some boxes as he lined up out wide at an 85% rate in the last game and saw six targets against the Bengals. He also ran the second-most routes and has been one of the Titans' better players when facing zone coverage.
VERDICT: Chris Rodriguez +175 | Chimere Dike +490
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Chiefs vs. Falcons
With the Falcons, I have to keep going back to Kyle Pitts. He leads the team in red-zone targets and has received at least one look inside the 20-yard line in every game since Michael Penix Jr. took over at quarterback — and the matchup against the Chiefs seems promising.
Kansas City has only allowed seven passing TDs on the season, but five of those were scored by tight ends.
At least we know Pitts has a floor for pass volume with at least five targets in five straight games — I think is a good spot for him to get back on track.
Each week, it becomes a bit more difficult to pinpoint the value for Chiefs TD scorers. While I think the addition of Josh Downs will boost the receiving corps as a whole, there’s no way I’m passing on Rashee Rice when he’s priced at +190.
Rice has only scored two touchdowns this season as he continues to recover from injury, but he practiced in full all week and should get his usual workload near the goal line.
The Falcons' pass defense has allowed seven TDs to WRs this year and they just traded away one of the best players in their secondary in safety Jesse Bates III.
Rice has been dealing with different ailments (and financial issues), so he might have more incentive to ball out for the Chiefs than any other player.
VERDICT: Kyle Pitts +280 | Rashee Rice +190
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Dolphins vs. Colts
I know this might sound crazy, but I think Daniel Jones and the Colts might actually play better now that the NFL trade deadline is over.
The constant rumors were a dark cloud hanging over this team the last few weeks — but now, I think this is a decent spot for the Colts offense to get right against the Dolphins — and the Colt I’m circling is RB Jonathan Taylor to score a touchdown, and I'm also laddering it up to two touchdowns at +600.
I expect more of a heavy workload for Taylor because the Colts have no incentive to protect him as a trade asset. Plus, he's facing a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in defensive DVOA against the run and just lost their best defensive tackle for the season.
Taylor already has three games this season with two or more touchdowns. Jones may vulture us, but he has been reluctant to run all year.
QB Kyle McCord is getting the start for the Dolphins, and while he may have upside as a passer, I’m just gonna take RB Ollie Gordon to score a TD at +120.
Gordon has already logged 27 red-zone carries, with 12 in the last three games with four rushing touchdowns.
As much as I just wrote about how the Dolphins' run defense is bad, the Colts might actually be worse. They’ve allowed the opposing RB1 to score on them in seven of nine games and rank 31st in defensive DVOA against the run.
VERDICT: Jonathan Taylor -105 & 2+ TDs +600 | Ollie Gordon +120 & 2+ TDs +750
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Texans vs. Browns
There’s a certain level of dirtiness that comes with betting on Deshaun Watson before you even consider what happened off the field.
However, Watson's running ability should pave the way for him to score a few more rushing TDs this season. He ranks second in total QB scrambles despite missing a game, and now he draws a matchup against a tough Texans defense. But Houston is missing a few key pieces at the line of scrimmage.
The upside here with Watson is he didn’t miss time because of a leg injury (or something to limit his mobility) and was cleared in concussion protocol by Sunday. He technically could’ve played last week if the Browns activated him.
I think these odds are just a bit too long given that Watson has at least shown he will try to run for the end zone if RB Quinshon Judkins falls short.
My initial look for the Texans was to run back Marvin Harrison Jr. at +500, but the hamstring injury that he gutted through in Week 9 will keep him out for Week 10. Instead, I think RB Woody Marks might be the best call here at +140.
It’s kind of wild that Marks hasn’t scored over the last four games with David Montgomery missing time. Marks has logged 15+ carries in four straight games, with 14 of those carries coming in the red zone — but no touchdowns. That’s just downright bad luck.
Now he faces a Browns run defense that has completely fallen apart over the last month, with seven rushing TDs given up over the last three games. As a result, the Browns have fallen to 24th in defensive DVOA against the run.
I think getting Marks at this price with no clear competition at the position is the way to go.
VERDICT: Woody Marks +140 | Deshaun Watson +550
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Panthers vs. Saints
I’m going to bet on Panthers TE Darren Waller again in Week 10. I took him last week and both Waller and TE Tommy Tremble scored against a tough Broncos defense.
The Panthers face a Saints defense this week that has allowed five TDs to TEs this year and ranks 21st in defensive DVOA against the position.
The thing about Waller is he’s streaky. He can have a game like he did against the Broncos where he sees nine targets, or he can be completely invisible like he was in a win over the Eagles.
Truthfully, I like QB Bryce Young to throw an interception in this game. So, I’m a bit down on the passing upside for Carolina this week, but if Waller is healthy, he is always a red-zone threat. I'll keep betting on him if we are getting +350 or better.
My initial read was to take Saints WR Jordyn Tyson, but that was when he originally opened at +300. Now, he’s closer to +225, and that is just too far of a drop until we know his exact role in this offense.
One player that I’m still pretty confident will see his role stay intact is WR Devaughn Vele at +290.
Even with Tyson’s arrival, Vele ran a route on 93% of dropbacks in Week 9 and leads the Saints with five end-zone targets to go with three touchdowns for the season.
Vele's never going to see the lion's share of targets in this offense, but once the Saints get within scoring distance, that’s when Vele comes alive, as he can use his 6-foot-5 frame to box out defenders.
Given how many injuries the Panthers are dealing with in the secondary, I think the Saints' passing offense should be in a decent position to rack up points.
VERDICT: Devaughn Vele +290 | Darren Waller +370
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Vikings vs. Packers
A rematch from Week 1, the one big difference for the Packers since the opener is the growth of WR Matthew Golden.
Golden leads the team in targets per route run, and in this version of the Packers offense, that’s even more valuable because he is key to Green Bay's explosive plays.
Golden ranks third in the NFL with 16 red-zone targets and second in the NFL in end-zone targets (11).
Obviously this is going to be an uphill battle against an elite Vikings defense, but I feel confident that Golden or Christian Watson will score — Golden has the slightly better data to support his case.
The idea of Justin Jefferson scoring a TD this week is intoxicating. Kirk Cousins is back in the fold and Jefferson had his best statistical seasons with the veteran QB under center.
However, I still think the Vikings' run game is where the best value lies, and RB Jordan Mason should be in line for a heavy workload.
Mason may only have seven red-zone carries, but he also missed four games with a thumb injury. Since his return, he's had at least one red-zone carry in each of the last three games while having more rush attempts than Aaron Jones in all four games he’s played this year.
I tend to lean on the idea that the Vikings offense should be better than what we’ve witnessed over the last two games, but given Cousins’ age and matchup, I’d still go with Mason to get 15+ carries and score a touchdown at this price.
VERDICT: Matthew Golden +170 | Jordan Mason +225
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Seahawks vs. Raiders
This might be a wild take, but Raiders TE Brock Bowers is the new Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak has essentially made Bowers the focal point of his passing scheme, similarly to what he did with Smith-Njigba last season.
Now, am I comparing these players or their exact skillsets? No! But what I’m trying to explain is that Bowers isn’t really a tight end in this Raiders offense. He plays out wide at close to a 35% clip while playing inline as low as 12%.
Now, if the analogy is that Bowers is the Raiders' version of JSN, there’s no way he should be over +200 to score a TD against any defense.
Teams have been trying to slow down Bowers, but Kubiak continues to find ways to get him open — even without seeing a red-zone target last week, Bowers managed to score a TD against the 49ers. He has now scored a touchdown in four of his last six games.
Playing at home with rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza making his debut, I expect the Raiders to lean heavily on Bowers again. At these odds, he’s one of the few players in this game that I see value in.
I’m on Drew Lock to throw an interception this week, so I don’t love the value we’re getting on Seahawks TDs.
I initially wanted to go with RB Zach Charbonnet to score, but he’s down to +125 while being in a timeshare with Jadarian Price.
Oh, and the Seahawks are on the road with a battered quarterback and missing two starting offensive linemen (Charles Cross, Quenton Nelson).
The Raiders rank last in defensive DVOA against the run, so that may not even matter, but it doesn’t scream “great matchup” like it should.
I have to pass on Seattle this week.
VERDICT: Brock Bowers +210 | Pass On Seahawks
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Rams vs. Cardinals
We’re seeing another rookie quarterback make his debut in this game with Carson Beck starting for the Cardinals. Unfortunately, the Rams aren’t really an ideal matchup.
Let’s take RB Tyler Allgeier to score a touchdown for Arizona. It’s not often you get an RB1 at +200 or better, but this is a spot where we absolutely want Allgeier, who has logged 14 red-zone carries over the last four games and has scored a rushing and receiving TD during that stretch.
Other than Allgeier, there isn’t much to get excited about with WR Michael Wilson out for the season. As for Trey McBride, he will likely get subjected to double or triple teams from the Rams defense.
For Week 10, it’s “Allgeier, No Brakes!”
For lack of a better term, it’s a complete sh**show when trying to pick Rams TD scorers going forward. Both of their starting wide receivers (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams) are out with injuries, and with them running 13-personnel at the one of the highest rates in the NFL, we may see three-TE sets all game for Los Angeles.
I think we have to go back to TE Colby Parkinson at +300. He’s been dealing with injuries and is easing his way back, but his snaps and routes run rate have started to increase as he continues to get healthier.
Given the lack of WR talent, I had the expected odds closer to +250 for this matchup. I’ll take the +300 on the TE that saw two red-zone targets last week.
VERDICT: Tyler Allgeier +230 | Colby Parkinson +300
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49ers vs. Cowboys
Cowboys Jake Ferguson is expected to miss some time so we finally get to see TE2 Brevyn Spann-Ford operate in that top spot for Dallas.
There have been rumblings in Dallas that Spann-Ford was going to start seeing an increase in playing time — he’s now seen 75% of his total targets in just the last four games.
Since the Cowboys made the shift four games ago, Spann-Ford has doubled Ferguson in targets per route run and has seen his snap rate jump as high as 88% (Week 8).
The 49ers are going to have a TD tax on all of their players each week, but the one player I circled once I got a better idea of the injury reports is WR Demarcus Robinson at +260.
Robinson came back for Week 9 and ran a route on 60% of dropbacks while also seeing an end-zone target. He now has three end-zone targets in only three games played, and his targets per route run is just under 23%, which is decent for a 49ers offense that spreads the ball around so much.
WR Mike Evans is still expected to be out. Deebo Samuel is coming back from injury, so its unclear how effective he’ll be, and WR Keenan Allen just arrived, so he might only play a handful of snaps.
I think the 49ers' pass offense should have some success in this one given that Dallas ranks 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass and ranks bottom 10 in targets, catches, and yards to wide receivers.
VERDICT: Brevyn Spann-Ford +350 | DeMarcus Robinson +300
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