The Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) and New York Giants (0-2) meet in the NFL Week 3 edition of Sunday Night Football on September 21. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
The Chiefs are favored by -6 with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. The Chiefs are -267 moneyline favorites while Giants are +215 to pull off the upset.
It's hard to believe we get a Sunday Night Football game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson on winless teams, but here we are. Can Mahomes and the Chiefs get right tonight after two tough losses to the Chargers and Eagles?
Find my Chiefs vs Giants prediction and NFL picks for Sunday Night Football below.
Chiefs vs Giants Prediction
- Chiefs vs Giants pick: Chiefs moneyline -280 (to -350) or ML parlay
My Chiefs vs Giants best bet is the KC moneyline (or a moneyline parlay). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs Giants Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 45.5 -108o / -110u | -267 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 45.5 -108o / -110u | +215 |
Chiefs vs Giants Sunday Night Football Preview
Note: All data is via FTN unless otherwise noted.
The tale of Russell Wilson's 2025 season is that of two very different defensive game plans.
- Week 1 at WAS: 60% man coverage; 29% blitz
- Week 2 at DAL: 24% man coverage; 18% blitz
In Week 1, Dan Quinn's combination of tight coverage and extra rushers clogged the passing lanes for the 5-foot-11 Wilson and afforded him no time to get through his progressions. Week 2 … was the opposite of that.
- Week 1: 17-of-37, 168 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0-1 deep passing (2.7% rate)
- Week 2: 30-of-41, 494 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 7-of-11, 264 yards, 3 TD deep (26.8% rate)
Here is where the Chiefs rank in terms of man coverage and blitz rate through two weeks:
- Man coverage: 62.2% (2nd)
- Blitz rate: 47.3% (1st)
The last time Wilson went up against a Steve Spagnuolo defense was in Week 16 of 2024 with Pittsburgh, and he produced just 162 net passing yards on 42 dropbacks, going 23-of-37 for 205 yards with 0 TD, 1 INT, and 5 sacks for 43 yards lost in a 29-10 Steelers loss.
I expect the return of Andrew Thomas to have a positive impact, but how much is a question, especially with the Giants not holding a padded practice this week.
The Giants' awful interior line is still the main concern with Chris Jones lining up on the other side.
The Chiefs offense has been middling (17th in DVOA, 16th EPA/play, 22nd SR), but they left 7-10 points on the field against Philadelphia last week (Travis Kelce's goal-line-drop-turned-interception, Harrison Butker's missed 58-yard field goal).
Kansas City has been solid on a per-drive basis, ranking third in yards per drive (37.7), 10th in drive scoring rate (47.1%) and 11th in points per drive (2.35). The Chiefs should have success against a Giants defense that is underperforming its talent level under coordinator Shane Bowen — New York ranks 31st in DVOA, 30th in Success Rate and 28th in Expected Points Added Per Play through two weeks.
One of the things plaguing the Chiefs has been the lack of a non-Patrick Mahomes running game, but the Giants have allowed a league-worst 177.5 rushing yards per game and rank second-worst in EPA per rush allowed (0.152).
New York is down to its third-string inside linebacker after injuries to Micah McFadden (foot-IR) and Darius Muasau (concussion).
Complicating matters for the Giants is the fact that the defense played 86 snaps last week, something a desperate Chiefs team under head coach Andy Reid will surely exploit.
Reid's teams are always one of the most well-conditioned teams in the NFL thanks to a brutal, old-fashioned training camp. That could impact the Giants' defensive line and pressure rate, which (in theory) would be their saving grace in this matchup.
Chiefs vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
Per our Action Labs data, the Chiefs off a loss are 15-5 SU (75%), but only 10-10 (50%) ATS.
Though they are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, they are a better play on the ML or in a ML parlay.
Some options for the parlay:
- KC ML + Russell Wilson Under 222.5 pass yards (-111) +138 DK: Wilson has gone under 218 passing yards in 5-of-7 regular season losses since the start of last season.
- KC ML + Russell Wilson Under 222.5 pass yards (-111) + Giants Team Total under 19.5: Wilson's team has been held under 20 points in 7-of-8 losses since the start of last season (including playoffs).
I also like Wilson under 1.5 passing TDs (-154 DK) as a standalone or parlayed (though not every site lets your parlay it with Chiefs ML) since all of his TDs this season have come outside the red zone, and he could run one in against a more man-heavy defense.
He could lose more red-zone snaps to Jaxson Dart, who came in on the fringe red zone last week. The Giants could also try to run more in close after Wilson went 3-of-14 passing with 0 TD, 2 sacks in the red zone in Weeks 1-2.
Pick: Chiefs Moneyline (bet to -350)
Parlay Options:
- Chiefs Moneyline + Wilson Under 223.5 Pass Yards (+138; DraftKings)
- Chiefs Moneyline + Wilson Under 222.5 Pass Yards + Giants Team Total Under 19.5 (+200; DK)
Spread
I have no play for either side of the moneyline.
Moneyline
The Chiefs moneyline is my bet for this game. I list possible parlay combinations with the Chiefs above.
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total.
