For my NFL player props throughout the regular season and the playoffs, I have gone 39-26 (60%). We'll look to ride the hot hand with my NFL player props for the NFC Championship Game between the Rams and Seahawks.
- For more NFC Championship Game coverage, check out our Rams vs Seahawks preview, which includes Stuckey's spread pick.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Rams vs Seahawks, including my picks for Kenneth Walker III.
Kenneth Walker Player Props: Over/Under Prediction
In 18 games this year (including the playoffs), Kenneth Walker's median longest rush has been 17.5 yards and he's cleared 16.5 in exactly half his games.
However, that was while splitting the backfield with Zach Charbonnet, who is now out for the season with a torn ACL, meaning Walker should get the full load of carries, which is reflected in his rushing attempt line of 19.5.
That attempts line is more than he's had all season (maximum of 19 in a game), so he'll likely have extra opportunities to clear this prop than nearly all the rest of his games, making his season-long median a bit low.
In fact, four of his five lowest volume games also produced four of his five lowest longest gain games. When looking at 13 games where he cleared 11+ rushing attempts, his median longest rush jumps to 20, and two of those games came against the Rams.
The Rams ordinarily would be a tough matchup, but 42.1% of Walker's rushing attempts have been outside zone runs, where the Rams' run defense has been weakest, ranking slightly worse than league average in preventing explosive plays and allowing the seventh-longest yards per carry on these plays.
Walker's next-most utilized run is inside zone runs, where he has a whopping 14.6% explosive run rate, which is double the next-best qualified rusher — D'Andre Swift at 7.3% — so while the Rams have done well shutting this down, we'd expect Walker to still break a long one at an above-average rate.
This is a hefty number to clear, but the extra volume, combined with a relatively neutral matchup in which he's already cleared this number twice, is the tipping point that pushes me over.
Pick: Kenneth Walker III Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards (-118); bet to 17.5
