Khalil Herbert Draft Profile, Dynasty Fantasy Analysis & Props To Bet
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Khalil Herbert #21 of the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Khalil Herbert Draft Profile
Khalil Herbert Draft Props
Herbert has an over/under of 172.5 at Circa, which (I believe) is the only book to post a prop for him.
Herbert is not on my top 100 big board, but I have him ranked No. 133, which is in the vicinity of where his draft stock currently resides (per Grinding the Mocks).
As a result, I have bet the under.
Final bet of the night: Khalil Herbert under 172.5 at Circa, -115, 1.15 units.
This opened at 182.5 a couple of weeks ago. Wish I had bet it then. Oh well.
I think this should be around 149.5.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 28, 2021
The range of outcomes is wide for players projected for the second half of the draft. But, I think Herbert is on the borderline of Rounds 4-5, and his current over/under puts him deep in Round 5 and approaching Round 6.
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Herbert is a short-but-built runner who spent four years at Kansas and couldn't beat out Pooka Williams Jr. for the lead back role. I think that says pretty much everything you need to know about him, but I'll go the half-distance of giving him a halfway respectable blurb.
As a freshman at Kansas, Herbert was the No. 3 back with 44-189-3 rushing and 6-42-0 receiving, but as a sophomore he "broke out" (cough) as the lead back on a 1-11 team with 120-663-4 rushing and 8-38-0 receiving.
With his uninspiring second-year play, he was predictably demoted as a junior, functioning as the No. 2 back behind the diminutive freshman Williams and managing 113-499-5 rushing and 9-39-0 receiving in that subsidiary role.
As a senior, Herbert once again started the year behind Williams, and although he put up a decent 43-384-2 rushing line (with one reception for -1 yards, haha) in the first four games of the year, he decided to sit out the rest of the season, redshirt, graduate, and and then transfer to a school where he could get more playing time.
That school ended up being Virginia Tech, and in 2020 — in his lone season with the Hokies — Herbert finally looked like a lead back with 155-1,183-8 rushing and 10-179-1 receiving in 11 games.
Kansas had Pooka Williams and Khalil Herbert together for two seasons and, being KU, were terrible anyway.
And then of course Herbert left and turned into a stud.
Jayhawk football fandom man 😩
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) March 1, 2021
Herbert runs low to the ground with conviction and shiftiness, and he has good size-adjusted agility with a 6.96-second three-cone (per the RotoViz Workout Explorer). Plus, he has sufficient speed to break the long play.
Khalil Herbert is GONE. 76-yards to pay dirt!@HokiesFB | #ACCFootball
📺 https://t.co/22piorw7FApic.twitter.com/Pfbp0dWvRs
— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) December 13, 2020
But, Herbert has no proven receiving chops, and he will be old for a rookie.
With his expected draft capital, pass-catching shortfall and advanced age, he's a forgettable prospect.
NFL Prospect Comp: Ryquell Armstead with less speed and production
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
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