Koerner: Week 14 NFL Betting Picks Based on My Power Ratings
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derek Carr
- Two Ravens-Bills picks. A side in 49ers-Saints. A Titans-Raiders over/under play. Another spread bet for Seahawks-Rams.
- Sean Koerner reveals which NFL bets to make on Sunday morning based on his Week 14 power ratings.
Every week I use my NFL Power Ratings to project spreads and over/unders for every game and find the best bets. So which are still showing value?
Let’s take a look at five picks to make based on my power ratings in the following games:
- Ravens at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
- 49ers at Saints: 1 p.m. ET
- Titans at Raiders: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Seahawks at Rams: 8:20 p.m. ET
Now let’s dig in.
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Bills +6 vs. Ravens
Books will have to inflate Ravens lines for the foreseeable future due to the public backing they get week in and week out — they’re receiving 76% of the tickets and 83% of the money as of writing.
The Ravens are currently No. 1 in my power ratings: I would set them as 1.5-point favorites against the Patriots on a neutral field. Having said that, if sports betting were as simple as betting on the better team each week, we would all be millionaires.
I can’t emphasize how important it is to treat sports betting like a market and know when to buy low and sell high on teams. And right now would be the time to sell high on the Ravens.
I’m also taking the under 44.
Saints -2 vs. 49ers
The Saints opened as 3.5-point favorites, which I felt was way too high, but I anticipated a line like that would divide action evenly considering the 49ers have the second-highest Pythagorean win differential of the week (+2.6) over the Saints.
All that to say it’s a bit odd to see the public all over the 49ers here with more than 60% of the action coming in on San Francisco, causing the line to crash all the way down to -2. That sort of drastic line move through the key number of -3 involved sharp action as well.
Titans-Raiders Under 47.5
I have this pegged as the third-slowest game of Week 14, yet it has one of the four highest totals.
Both teams will attempt to control the clock with a run-heavy game plan. And while both secondaries are vulnerable, I wouldn’t expect either team to take too many shots downfield unless they get behind. Considering I project this to be a close one, I’m viewing that as all the more reason to like the under here.
Rams +1 vs. Seahawks
This matchup is giving me a bit of deja vu of the Week 12 matchup between the Ravens and Rams. I bit on the Rams +3.5 at home and could tell about two minutes into the game that it was a loser.
There’s no reason to @ me on Twitter that the Rams are overrated and their offensive line stinks — trust me, I’m well aware of that. But the Rams will win this game if they can give Jared Goff a clean pocket. The Seahawks have the fourth-worst pressure rate at 20.2%, so I think there’s a chance Goff will have the time to operate.
The Rams also have a +3.1 edge in Pythagorean expected record differential over the Seahawks. A lot of that has to do with the Seahawks being 8-1 in one-score games this season, and while you can certainly make a case that Russell Wilson playing at an MVP caliber is the reason for that, that type of record in close games involves quite a bit of luck. Pythagorean wins can really help expose scenarios in which our collective perception of a team can be skewed based solely on to-date results. I’ll be betting on that here with the Rams +1.
Koerner is 134-92-2 (59.3%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.