Koerner: The 4 Best Week 16 NFL Betting Picks Based on My Power Ratings
USA Today Sports. Pictured: David Blough
- Sean Koerner reveals which NFL bets to make on Sunday morning based on his Week 16 power ratings.
- Find his spread and over/under picks for Saints-Titans, Bengals-Dolphins, Lions-Broncos and Chiefs-Bears.
Every week I use my NFL Power Ratings to project spreads and over/unders for every game and find the best bets. So which are still showing value?
Let’s take a look at picks to make based on my power ratings in the following games:
- Saints at Titans: 1 p.m. ET
- Bengals at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
- Lions at Broncos: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Chiefs at Bears: 8:20 p.m. ET
Now let’s dig in.
Odds as of Sunday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Saints-Titans Under 50.5
Drew Brees had a historic performance on Monday Night Football, breaking two NFL records: Passing Peyton Manning for most career touchdowns and the highest completion percentage in a game by going 29-for-30. So it should come as no surprise that the public is all over the Saints this week.
But with Derrick Henry not expected to play, this could be a lower-scoring game than last week’s showing from the Saints would indicate — especially if the Titans can keep the ball out of Brees’ hands.
Bengals -1 at Dolphins
The weather forecast is calling for windy conditions in Miami, so this could be a battle between these teams’ running games — and Cincy has a huge edge.
Plus, the Bengals could realistically win this week then rollover against the Browns next week and still secure the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, whereas the Dolphins have more to lose by winning today’s game.
Lions-Broncos Over 38
The Broncos should be able to move the ball with ease against the Lions’ 24th-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. And while Detroit’s offense is clearly not as explosive with David Blough under center, if he’s forced to attempt 40-plus passes for the third straight game, it could help the over here.
It’s also worth noting that the return of stud running back Kerryon Johnson should give this offense a slight boost and help keep the Broncos defense honest, even if he’s limited.
Bears +6.5 at Chiefs
One of my favorite aspects of late-season betting is when one game can have an impact on another game’s spread.
That what we’re seeing with the Chiefs, who could have been playing for a first-round bye in Sunday night. But with the Patriots beating the Bills on Saturday, it all but ends the Chiefs’ chances of getting a first-round bye. The Patriots would have to lose at home to the Dolphins in Week 17, or the Ravens would have lose each of their last two games at the Browns and vs. Steelers for the Chiefs to secure that first-round bye. And both scenarios seem highly unlikely.
While I don’t think it will result in the Chiefs resting starters, it will significantly lower their motivation to win. Therefore I’ll be waiting to snag this once it reaches Bears +6.5, however, like it a +6 if your book never reaches 6.5.
Koerner is 158-119-2 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.