Lions vs. Packers Betting Odds & Picks: Back Aaron Rodgers & Co.?

Lions vs. Packers Betting Odds & Picks: Back Aaron Rodgers & Co.? article feature image

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

  • Our experts detail everything you need to know to bet Monday Night Football between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
  • The Packers moved from 6- to 3.5-point favorites since opening. Should you follow the odds movement? Find our picks below.

Lions at Packers Betting Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Packers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of Monday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How much better is Aaron Rodgers against his divisional rivals than other opponents? And will there be an added home-field advantage on Monday Night Football?

Our experts consider whether you should backing the Green Bay Packers in their NFC North showdown against the Detroit Lions, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.

Monday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Lions

While the Lions have more players listed on their injury report, the Packers will still be down a key player in Davante Adams (toe). They’ll also be down S Darnell Savage, who carries one of the best coverage grades in their secondary, per Pro Football Focus.

The Lions have listed four defenders as questionable: CB Darius Slay (hamstring), S Quandre Diggs (hamstring), DL A’Shawn Robinson (knee), and DL Da’Shawn Hand (elbow). Robinson is fourth on the team in quarterback hurries and pressures, so ideally, they’d have his help against Rodgers and Co. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Packers Pass Rush vs. Lions Offensive Line

Spearheaded by edge rushers Preston Smith (5.5 sacks), Za’Darius Smith (5), Mike Pettine’s unit has gotten after the quarterback this season. The Packers are ranked ninth in pressure rate (28.1%) and fourth in quarterback knockdown rate (10.2%).

It’s a concern for the Lions.

According to PFF, the Lions’ offensive line is 24th in the league in Pass Blocking Efficiency and has allowed the ninth-most QB hits (nine) despite having an early bye.

Preston Smith
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Preston Smith

Left tackle Taylor Decker grades out at just 49th among tackles, per PFF, and right tackle Rock Wagner has been even worse (63rd). Even Frank Ragnow, who grades out as the best run-blocking center in the NFL, has struggled in pass protection (24th). And he could have his hands full with defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who has amassed the fifth-most pressures among interior defenders (23).

Despite 58% of bet tickets coming in on the over as of writing (see live public betting data here), this total has dropped from 46.5 behind 57% of money wagered coming in on the under. While it’s easy to point to Adams’ absence responsible for the dip, Green Bay’s pass rush might have something to say about that.  Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -5.5
  • Projected Total: 46.5

I factor in the entire context of the previous week’s games when adjusting my power ratings. And when it comes to the Packers, we’ve seen a trend in which they get out to a pretty big lead then let the other team comeback. But that isn’t really unique to them — most teams are willing to run the ball more to burn the clock and shorten the game rather than run up the score with big leads.

On the defensive side, the Packers surrender more passes underneath to prevent the big play that can let the other team back in it. As a result, their +26 point differential doesn’t illustrate just how dominant they’ve been this year. The line has kept moving down from the -6.5 opener, and there’s value at -3.5, but it’s worth even seeing if it can fall to -3 before taking them. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Matthew Freedman: Packers -3.5

Rodgers has notable home/away against the spread splits.

  • Home: 50-28-3, 24.7% ROI
  • Away: 42-39-1, 1.9% ROI

In the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers are the only team in the league that is top-five in home/away scoring differential for both offense and defense, as they have averaged 3.7 more points per game at home than on the road and held opponents to a league-best 4.9 fewer points in Green Bay.

As a result, they have an NFL-high 8.5-point overall home/away scoring differential. At Lambeau Field, they truly have a home-field advantage.

Rodgers also has significant divisional splits.

  • In division: 38-23-0, 21.8% ROI
  • Outside of division: 54-44-4, 8.1% ROI

Against teams he knows well, Rodgers has historically had an extra edge.

When these two splits are combined and Rodgers is a divisional home favorite, the Packers are 20-10 (30.1% ROI).

I bet this at Packers -6 earlier in the week.

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