Lions vs Packers Best Bets: Picks, Player Props for NFL Thursday Night Football
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Lions vs Packers Odds Thursday Night Football (Week 4)
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +115 |
NFL Thursday Night Football is here. The Week 4 slate kicks off with an NFC North rivalry game featuring Detroit and Green Bay, which means it’s time for Lions vs. Packers spread picks, player props, over/unders and more.
The Lions vs. Packers spread has visiting Detroit as favorites in the range of -2 to -2.5 in this clash at Lambeau Field. This despite the Packers getting key players back — Christian Watson and Aaron Jones — not to mention the revenge game angle after they were eliminated from playoff contention by Detroit last season.
We have betting analysts on both sides of the spread, plus a pick on the game total and multiple player props for Jordan Love and Sam LaPorta. One of those prop picks is also a plus-money play.
Our staff of NFL analysts are all over this game in this betting preview. From Lions vs. Packers spread picks to player props, here are our experts' five best bets for Thursday Night Football.
Lions vs. Packers Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lions vs. Packers
The Packers appear to be getting healthy at the right time with Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander all looking like they'll be ready to go on a short week.
Detroit is still missing three key names in its secondary, and that could be problematic against an aggressive Packers passing attack that ranks second in DVOA through three games. Jordan Love has not been accurate, but Green Bay is making up for it by pushing the ball down the field and keying on big plays, with Love third in EPA per play and first in Intended Air Yards.
Lambeau Field is still the best home-field advantage in the NFL; Green Bay has beaten the Lions in 28 of their last 32 visits. One of those rare losses came in the final game of the regular season last year, when the Packers were kept out of the playoffs by a Detroit team with nothing left to play for (Seattle Island!!), so this is a revenge spot, too.
I honestly can't believe the Packers are underdogs. I'd make them a favorite, probably by a field goal. Matt LaFleur is 16-4 (80%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, including 13–7 straight-up (SU).
I expect Green Bay to win outright, and that means this is the right time to buy Packers futures. After Detroit, Green Bay's next six opponents are 5-13 combined.
This is a chance for the Packers to make a big push as the team gets healthy. There's still some value at +160 to win the division, and I love LaFleur for NFL Coach of the Year at +1500 (BetRivers). That was a coaching win on Sunday against the Saints, and his aggression and play-calling are maximizing this roster.
It starts with a win on Thursday night. Go Pack go.
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Lions vs. Packers
By Cody Goggin
Jordan Love has impressed many through the first few weeks of the season, entering Week 4 with the NFL's third-highest EPA per play. However, these good outcomes have been driven by a lot of luck. Love’s accuracy issues have not yet come back to bite him in a big way, but they will at some point when the regression hits.
Despite his high ranking in EPA, Love is only 17th in passing success rate and 32nd in CPOE. Based on this CPOE number and its positive correlation with EPA per play, Love would be expected to have an output much more similar to the worst QBs in the league than what he has had this year.
Love is throwing deeper than any quarterback in the league this year, with an average depth of target of 10.6 yards. However, he is not connecting on many of these as he is averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt, which ranks 15th in the league.
When facing pressure, Jordan Love ranks 27th in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) offensive grade this season. His 8% turnover-worthy play rate is sixth highest in the league when facing pressure, as well. Love has four turnover-worthy plays this season, according to PFF, but this has resulted in only one interception. This number typically comes back to earth.
Love will likely be facing a lot of this pressure this week since he'll again be without the left side of his offensive line in David Bahktiari and Elgton Jenkins. Also, Zach Tom is questionable with a knee injury.
Detroit has been fairly strong to start the season once again. The Lions rank third in PFF passing grade, sixth in pass blocking grade, third in run blocking grade and fourth in receiving grade. This has not translated into explosive scoring performances yet, but from last year we know that this team does have it in them and it could be coming at any point.
Green Bay’s defense has not yet been truly tested either. The Packers have faced Chicago, Atlanta and then New Orleans last week. Detroit will be the best offense they've faced, and I trust Detroit's offense will be the better unit in this game.
Betting on a road team in a divisional primetime game is always tough, but I like the Lions here and would take them up to 3 points.
Lions vs. Packers
Both of these defenses have allowed fewer than 5 yards per play to begin the season and both rank inside the top 12 in total defensive DVOA. The only weakness that either of the units may have is the Packers' inability to stop the run. I don't believe the Lions' ground attack has hit its stride yet, and it may not be able to exploit this. Detroit is 24th in the league with a 3.64 yards per carry average.
Even in their meeting to end the season last year, the defenses held up on third down, as both offenses converted only 33% of their tries. Neither running game excelled, and despite only three total sacks in the game, the final fell 20-16. With Jared Goff's road outdoor struggles, I expect another low-scoring game. In outdoor games last season, the Lions averaged only 18.7 points per game.
Night game unders have cashed at a 67% rate since the beginning of the 2022 regular season. They have begun the new season tilted even greater toward the under, with 9 of 11 falling below the total. I will happily take the under once again when above the key numbers of 44 and 45.
Pick: Under 46 (Bet to 45.5)
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Lions vs. Packers
By Ricky Henne
I’m a big believer in riding streaks until they snap, which is why I’m a fan of LaPorta catching over 4.5 passes.
The rookie has eclipsed that number in all three games. He caught five passes in each of his first two games and then eight this past Sunday against the Falcons. LaPorta’s targets have also skyrocketed as the year’s gone on. Jared Goff targeted him five times in the season opener, six times in Week 2 and then a whopping 11 last week.
Meanwhile, tight ends have been active against the Packers. Quarterbacks have targeted them 23 times, which is tied for ninth most in the league.
What seals the deal for me are the odds on the over. I think there’s tremendous value as you can grab this as high as +130.
I expected it to be closer to even odds considering LaPorta’s first three games, which is why this is my favorite betting angle heading into Thursday Night Football.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)
Lions vs. Packers
We don't have a large sample size to analyze of Jordan Love as a starting QB, but he's been running at a decent clip so far this season.
Through three games, Love has 14 rush attempts totaling 74 yards. He has hit the over at this number twice, and the one start he didn't was a game the Packers led from start to finish against the Bears.
Now, Love draws a matchup vs. the Lions, who gave up the most rushing yards to opposing QBs last season (700). The next closest team was at 525.
The Lions are a team that tends to run man coverage a lot, which favors an athletic QB. I would hit this line all the way to 19.5.
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