Dolphins-Bills Betting Preview: How Sharps Are Betting This Matchup

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -5.5
• Over/Under: 39.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Sharps on Buffalo?! After opening on the key number of -3, the Bills are all the way up to -5.5.

Our betting percentages reveal that 76% of the cash is backing Buffalo at the time of writing after that beautiful backdoor cover vs. Brady & Belichick (see live betting data here).

The over/under has also seen sharp activity, as steam hit the over at 38.5. Though bets are split, the over is seeing 68% of the money and it’s up to 39.5 now after opening at 38. —Mark Gallant

Weather report: The temperature will be hovering right around freezing, with wind speeds of about 12 mph. No precipitation is in the forecast, though, so unfortunately Buffalo will not yield one of those snowstorms like it did for the Colts game in 2017. —Mark Gallant

Draft order: A win would almost certainly knock Buffalo outside of the top 10 in the 2019 draft.

Miami currently holds the 15th pick, and even if the Dolphins lose to the Bills, they'd need losses from Atlanta, Carolina, Denver, Cincinnati and/or Green Bay to move up the board.

It's a longshot they'll work their way into the top 10. — Scott T. Miller

Did you know? This is just the 14th total to be listed at less than 40 points this season. For perspective, from 2003-07 there were 531 games (more than 100 games a season) with over/under of less than 40 points.

This year the over is 8-5 in games with totals of 39.5 fewer points. — John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Bills pass defense vs. Dolphins passing game

It's best to stay away from this passing game in fantasy considering Ryan Tannehill has throw for fewer than 150 yards in three of his five starts since returning from injury. This is especially true this week, as the Bills boast a top-three defense in both overall and pass DVOA.

Not helping matters is the Dolphins’ mediocre and injury-riddled offensive line, as Tannehill has the week’s third-worst combined pressure rate. None of Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker or Danny Amendola should have to deal with stud No. 1 corner Tre’Davious White on an every-snap basis, but there’s a low floor and even lower ceiling for anyone involved in the Dolphins’ passing "attack." — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Bills

Neither team figures to rest any of their starters. The Bills could welcome back Chris Ivory (shoulder), but backup receiver Deonte Thompson (toe) will likely be sidelined.

The Dolphins have a few more issues to worry about, as linebacker Kiko Alonso (knee, hamstring), safety T.J. McDonald (foot), cornerback Xavien Howard (knee), along with defensive linemen Ziggy Hood (hamstring) and Andre Branch (knee) should be considered questionable for Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Wide receiver Robert Foster makes for an intriguing mid-range play on DraftKings.

Over the past three weeks, he owns 20.5% of Buffalo's target share and 28% of their market share of air yards. And his 20.1 average depth of target gives him the most upside on the Bills’ offense.

In our FantasyLabs Player Models, Fosters’ 18.0 Ceiling Projection leads all receivers in this game. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bills -5.5

This game is one of the most straightforward on the slate, which makes it one of the easiest to handicap in my opinion.

We don’t have to worry about quarterbacks being pulled mid game. We don’t have to worry about scoreboard watching. We don’t have to worry about inflated spreads because of “motivation.”

We can simply focus on the two teams, and I think the Bills are the superior squad despite owning an inferior record. Miami currently ranks 30th in DVOA, while the Bills check in at 25th.

They outgained the Dolphins by a ridiculous margin in their first meeting, winning the yardage battle 415-175, but were ultimately done in by three turnovers.

If Josh Allen can avoid gifting the Dolphins field position in this contest, I like the Bills’ chances of covering the spread. — Matt LaMarca

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.