Patriots-Lions SNF Betting Preview: Fade New England at Your Own Risk

Patriots-Lions SNF Betting Preview: Fade New England at Your Own Risk article feature image

Stew Milne, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady

Betting odds: New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

  • Spread: Patriots -6.5
  • Over/Under: 54
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.

Betting market: The Patriots’ loss to Jacksonville is not fazing the public. In fact, it’s encouraging them.

At the time of writing, New England is receiving a whopping 84% of spread bets (see live betting odds and data here).

The Pats are by far the most popular bet in Week 3. It seems as if folks have caught on to the fact that they generally don’t fail to cover twice in a row.

The over/under has seen some crazy line movement: The early opening lines ranged from 45.5 to 46.

The total is now sitting around 53.5-54 at most books across the market, thanks to more than 80% of bets and 97% of dollars on the over.

Congrats to anyone who got over 46 . —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: New England lost to Jacksonville 31-20 in Week 2. According to our Bet Labs data, Tom Brady is 32-10 (76%) against the spread after a loss since 2003.

After a double-digit loss, TB12 has gone 13-2 (87%) ATS, covering on average by 12.3 points. — John Ewing

Here we go again, Matthew Stafford in a key spot against a good team and a great QB. In his career, he is 23-48 (32.4%) straight-up and 27-42-2 (39.1%) against the spread vs. teams who are .500 or better at the time of the game. Stafford has been in the NFL for a decade now and has faced nine different QBs who have won a Super Bowl ring. Stafford is 7-23 (23.3%) straight-up and 7-22-1 (24.1%) against the spread vs. Super Bowl-winning QBs, including just 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS at home in Detroit. — Evan Abrams

Injury watch: Rob Gronkowski (ankle) made his first mid-week appearance on the injury report of the season after being downgraded to a limited practice Thursday.

The rest of the offense is mostly healthy, as only newly acquired wide receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring) and right tackle Marcus Cannon (calf) failed to get a full practice in before Friday.

The defensive side of the ball is less promising, as the Pats could be without cornerback Eric Rowe (groin), defensive end Trey Flowers (concussion) and strong safety Patrick Chung (concussion).

The Lions face the prospect of trying to stop Tom Brady without their No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay (concussion), who didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday.

Linebacker Eli Harold (hip) and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah (shoulder) were limited in practice on Thursday. The timetable for right guard T.J. Lang (back) remains unclear.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Gronk will take on a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric against tight ends to start the season, so he should rebound in a big way from his 2-15-0 stat line in Week 2.

His nine DraftKings Pro Trends are tied with Todd Gurley for the most of any player this week. — Joe Holka

Bet to watch: Patriots -6.5

Brady is 22-3 ATS on the road coming off a loss since 2003. Sample too small/specific for you? Road favorites vs. home teams on two-game losing streaks have gone 104-76-7 (57.8%) ATS since 2003.

Brady and Lions head coach Matt Patricia know each other from Patricia’s time as defensive coordinator with New England. But Patricia’s defense ranks 31st in points allowed, and it got shredded by Sam Darnold in Week 1. What do you think Brady will do to Detroit this week?

So, yeah, the fact that Brady and Patricia have seen each other every day in practice for the past six years is looking like a strong “advantage Brady.” — Chris Raybon


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.