Patriots-Titans Betting Preview: Will Brady Dominate Another Playoff Rematch?

Patriots-Titans Betting Preview: Will Brady Dominate Another Playoff Rematch? article feature image
Credit:

Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8).

Betting odds: New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

  • Spread: Patriots -7
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: After opening with the Patriots as seven points favorites on Tuesday morning, it took about a half hour for sharp action to come in on the Titans +7.

The Pats are getting 85% of spread bets in this game and 81% of money. With the line between -6.5 and -7 at certain books, I expect the public to continue to hit on the Pats at -6.5, while sharp bettors will likely wait and see if they can get the Titans +7 while it’s available (check for updated data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2003, the Patriots are 36-24-1 against the spread as road favorites in games Tom Brady has started, according to Bet Labs data.

But if the opposing team made the playoffs the year before, like the Titans, the record falls to 7-7 ATS. — John Ewing

Did you know? The Titans have one less day to prepare after playing on Monday night. Bill Belichick has gone 15-7 ATS against teams on a short week, including 10-2 ATS on the road. — Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Patriots pass defense vs. Titans offense

Even though the Titans disavowed their exotic smash mouth scheme in the offseason, they have the league’s second-highest run rate at 47.5% this season.

The Titans rank in the bottom three of most passing statistics, and they have a young, home-grown group of wide receivers — Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor — who are routinely ignored within the offense and largely incapable of winning in all but the cushiest of matchups.

The Titans don’t have that kind of matchup this week.

Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots defensive back Stephon Gilmore (24).

The Patriots rank second with a 90.9 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore (88.2) and Jason McCourty (80.8) both rank inside the top 15 at the position. Collectively, they’ve held opposing receivers to a 49.5% catch rate on 99 passes thrown their way.

The Titans could struggle to pass on the Patriots, and if they can’t pass, they have almost no chance of keeping pace with New England’s offense. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Titans

The Patriots regularly list half of their starters as questionable, but the only players thought to be at risk of missing Sunday’s game are left tackle Trent Brown (illness), right guard Shaq Mason (calf), tight end Rob Gronkowski (ankle, back) and running back Sony Michel (knee).

All indications are that Michel will suit up for the first time since Week 7.

The Titans aren’t exactly 100%, either, as right tackle Jack Conklin (concussion) along with wide receivers Tajae Sharpe (ankle) and Taywan Taylor (foot) are looking on the doubtful side of things. The good news is the defense should welcome back linebacker Will Compton (hamstring).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Since the Titans played on Monday night, Dion Lewis is available at the Monday night discount on DraftKings, where he costs just $4,600.

He’s coming off a game where he saw 23 touches, and this game should set up well for him since the Titans are 6.5-point underdogs and Derrick Henry is useless in the passing game. His +3.99 projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings leads all running backs in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Patriots -6.5

Don’t overthink this one, people. Tennessee is off a nice win at Dallas, but the Titans have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde show all season.

They mix solid wins with tough losses. New England on the other hand is humming along, having scored more than 30 points in five of their past six games. Further, the Pats will likely get Michel back for this game, which should add another layer to their already potent offense.

An X-factor to consider is that Tennessee’s pass defense has been abysmal this season, particularly in the past few weeks. That secondary is anchored by former Patriot Malcolm Butler. The Patriots may be able to exploit this matchup since they know Butler so well.

Tennessee’s offense simply will not be able to score enough points to keep pace in this one, as they’ve scored fewer than 20 in three of their past four contests.

The Patriots will do Patriot things and continue to roll. — BlackJack Fletcher


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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