Patriots vs Cardinals Odds & Prediction: Expert Previews Monday Night Football
Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald. Pictured: Hunter Henry (left), Mac Jones (right).
- The Patriots are 2.5-point favorites over the Cardinals, as of 1 p.m. ET.
- New England has lost two straight games, while Arizona has dropped four of its last five.
- Chris Raybon breaks down the matchup and reveals his betting thoughts below.
Patriots vs Cardinals Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -106 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -134 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -114 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +114 |
The Arizona Cardinals are just 10-19-1 straight-up (SU) and 12-18 against the spread (ATS) at home under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Can they buck the trend coming off a bye against the visiting New England Patriots?
Let's look to see if there's a Patriots vs Cardinals pick to make.
Patriots vs Cardinals Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Patriots and Cardinals match up statistically:
Patriots vs Cardinals DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 24 | 24 | |
| Pass DVOA | 21 | 25 | |
| Rush DVOA | 26 | 19 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 29 | 3 | |
| Pass DVOA | 29 | 3 | |
| Rush DVOA | 27 | 7 | |
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense face a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that generates pressure at the second-highest rate (27.5%). Bill Belichick's defense dials up man coverage at the second-highest rate and blitzes at an above average rate as well, all of which could bother Murray.
Murray's 29.1 PFF grade under pressure ranks 33rd of 37 qualified passers, and his 57.6 grade against the blitz ranks 31st. The Cardinals' 5.4 yards per targeted pass against man coverage ranks 31st in the league.
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With that being said, the Patriots have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season. They gave up 107 yards and a touchdown on the ground to Lamar Jackson in a 37-26 loss in Week 3, and 82 yards and a touchdown on the ground to Justin Fields in a 33-14 loss in Week 6. And while they held Josh Allen to 20 yards rushing in Week 13, the Bills were still able to control the ball for over 38 minutes en route to a 24-10 win.
The Patriots offense will be without its top target in Jakobi Meyers (concussion) and its No. 2 running back in Damien Harris (thigh), which means we should expect a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson.
The second-year pro is averaging 5.1 yards per touch and 93.1 scrimmage yards per game. He presents a tough matchup for a Cardinals defense that ranks 19th in DVOA against the run and 30th in DVOA on passes to running backs.
The Patriots would do well to get tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith involved, as the Cardinals are 30th in DVOA versus tight ends and allow the most catches (6.9), yards (73.3) and touchdowns (0.75) per game to the position.
Under Matt Patricia, New England's offense hasn't always followed conventional wisdom and has been head-scratching at times — the usage of Henry and Smith is a prime example. Despite paying big money for both players in free agency last season, Henry is averaging 3.3 targets per game and Smith is averaging 2.6.
Betting Picks
This is a stay away for me.
Regarding the spread, the matchup favors the Patriots defense on paper, but they've struggled in similar spots.
The trends also favor New England — Arizona is 12-18 (60%) ATS at home under Kingsbury, while the Patriots are 51-23-1 (69%) under Belichick off a loss since 2003, including 24-8-1 (75%) ATS off a double-digit loss — yet we've tracked six sharp moves on Arizona via our public betting data in the Action Network App. That's understandable, as it's tough to justify laying points with a mediocre Patriots team on the road against a team coming off its bye; I make the game right around a pick 'em.
In terms of the total, Patriots road unders are 35-19 (65%) since 2016, but Cardinals games have hit the over at a 60% clip this year, and New England's defense hasn't been easy to handicap against mobile quarterbacks.
My biggest lean would be the overs on Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith's receiving yards, but as I mentioned, even that doesn't show major value for me because the Patriots don't always do what you expect on offense.
Henry's yardage prop is currently at 30.5, but he's cleared 22 yards in only four of 12 games. Smith's is currently 12.5, but he's cleared 10 yards in only five of 11 games.
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