The New Orleans Saints (0-3) and Buffalo Bills (3-0) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are 15.5-point favorites over the Saints on the spread (Bills -15.5), with the over/under set at 48 total points. Buffalo is a -1600 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +850 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Saints vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Saints vs Bills Prediction
- Saints vs Bills pick: Over 48 (-110)
In the most lopsided matchup of the season thus far, according to oddsmakers, the Saints must travel to Highmark Stadium to face the Bills.
Given the trends surrounding 0-3 teams and teams coming off a blowout loss, I cannot lay the points with the Bills as substantial favorites.
Josh Allen has covered just 38% of the time in his career when favored by more than 10 points. However, I do see value on the total in what should be a game played at a very high pace.
My Saints vs Bills best bet is on the over, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Saints vs Bills Odds
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
Saints vs Bills NFL Week 4 Preview
New Orleans Saints Betting Preview
The Saints and Bills are leading the NFL in plays run per game, with each team averaging more than 68 plays per game.
Kellen Moore has brought his patented fast-paced attack to New Orleans. I credit him with the trademark as we see the Eagles playing at the league’s slowest pace after finishing as the 10th fastest a season ago.
The Saints ran 70 plays in their blowout loss last week in Seattle, which gives me confidence that no matter the score, they are going to be trying to move the football until the clock reads zero.
New Orleans is averaging 16 points per game, but has yet to put up a point in the first quarter. They eventually will break through in the early going, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it happens on Sunday.
The Saints have faced the 5th, 6th, and 13th-ranked defenses according to DVOA to open the season with the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals, respectively.
The Bills' defense ranks 21st in the league in yards per play allowed (5.5).
I expect their ranking to be inflated in the coming weeks as their schedule is very easy. In this particular matchup, the Saints should be able to do just enough to get this total over the finish line.
The Bills' run defense is 31st in yards per carry allowed and 32nd in DVOA variance; a metric that essentially measures how consistent a team’s defensive performance is week to week.
If there were ever a week to avoid showing your hand defensively, it would be this one for a Bills defense that ranks 22nd in pass rush win rate.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Saints' defense has very little chance of slowing down the Buffalo offense. Buffalo's team total at 32.5 simply isn't high enough. Five touchdowns scored by Buffalo feels more than attainable.
The Saints rank 31st in pressure rate and 32nd in non-blitz pressure rate through three games. With a clean pocket this season, Josh Allen’s passer rating is 117.1.
New Orleans is not going to be able to create any havoc versus a team that lives on schedule offensively.
The Bills convert a fresh set of downs into 1st-and-10 or a touchdown at an 82.4% rate, the 2nd-highest league-wide.
The Saints' best chance of staying in this game revolves around their ability to stop the run. They have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs, but defending the entire Bills’ attack is a much taller task.
The Bills boast the 2nd-best rushing attack according to DVOA.
James Cook is playing at an elite level. He leads the NFL in first down rushes with 15 and averages 5.3 yards per rush.
Saints vs Bills Prediction, Betting Analysis
Since the beginning of the 2024 regular season, we have seen 18 games in which the home team was favored by 10 or more points, and the over has cashed in 61.1% of those games.
Buffalo scored 34 or more points at home five times during the regular season last year.
This game will likely include an onslaught of Bills’ points, as well as upwards of 140 offensive plays.
This is a perfect recipe for an over.
Pick: Over 48 (-110)
Spread
No play on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
Take the over in this Sunday's Saints vs. Bills matchup.
