The New York Giants (2-7) and Chicago Bears (5-3) face off in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Bears are 4.5-point favorites over the Giants on the spread (Bears -4.5), with an over/under of 46.5 points. Chicago is a -220 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New York is +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 9 preview and Giants vs Bears prediction.
Giants vs Bears Prediction
- Giants vs Bears pick: Giants +4.5 (-110)
My Bears vs Giants best bet is on New York to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Giants vs Bears Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
Giants vs Bears NFL Week 10 Preview
This is one of our rare Luck Rankings matchups as the Giants have been among the unluckiest teams on the season.
It looks like they're horrible with Jaxson Dart at quarterback, but if you peek under the hood, they’re actually 0.04 EPA per play better than their season-long numbers suggest — but it hasn't always shown up in the final scores.
This Bears team is hard to handicap, especially in a spotlight like this against the Giants.
The Bears have played one of the easiest schedules in the league — the third-easiest by DVOA, behind only New England and Buffalo. They needed a second touchdown from their backup tight end just to win last week against the Bengals.
Chicago's defense isn’t good, and neither is the Giants', but that’s already priced into the line.
The Giants secondary has been banged up, but there’s a chance a few players return this week.
Their offensive line isn’t fully healthy either, with John Michael Schmitz and Jermaine Eluemunor questionable, but even getting one or two pieces back could help.
The Bears defense isn’t healthy and lacks a pass rush, especially without Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson. That’s the same unit that got shredded by Joe Flacco.
Giants vs Bears Prediction, Betting Analysis
These are two bad teams with bad defenses, but I think Caleb Williams is more likely to make costly mistakes than Jaxson Dart.
The Giants are trending up offensively. They should have Darius Slayton back, which gives Dart another target. They’ve also been rotating receivers more creatively — Gunner Olszewski made a play last week, and they’ve mixed in Bo Collins and tight end Thomas Fidone II.
The Giants have just been super unlucky with Jaxson Dart, who has been excellent compared to Russell Wilson. Dart's rushing adds about +0.05 EPA per play, and that changes the offense over the course of a game.
The Bears are probably going to go run heavy and they'll still have some success doing it. This is the best rushing offense over the past month versus the worst rushing defense in the league.
Chicago will have success on the ground, but I think New York can keep up.
This Bears defense has relied heavily on turnovers, and without those, they can’t get stops. If the Giants get back to even modest health on the offensive line and in the secondary, that could swing things their way.
Dart has quietly been impressive — he ranks 12th in adjusted EPA per play, compared to Caleb Williams at 21st, and that’s despite facing tougher defenses.
The Bears have seen a string of bottom-tier defensive units: Raiders, Commanders, Bengals. Meanwhile, the Giants have played legitimate teams like the 49ers, Eagles and Broncos.
That strength of schedule difference could be an equalizer here.
I think this line represents the top of the market for Chicago. The Bears are a bottom-third team, and they shouldn’t be laying 4.5 points against a comparable opponent.
Pick: Giants +4.5 (-110)
Spread
My Bears vs Giants betting prediction is on New York to cover the spread at +4.5.
Moneyline
I'm not betting either side of the moneyline in this spot.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
