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Jets-Patriots Betting Preview: Will New England Break 3-Game ATS Skid?

Dec 30, 2018 8:40 AM EST
Credit:

Robert Deutsch, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Robbie Anderson, Stephon Gilmore

Betting odds: New York Jets at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -13.5 
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The Pats have scared off some of the public bettors who are generally taking them no matter what, as just 53% are laying the 13.5 points in hopes that New England breaks its three game coverless streak.

Sharp bettors have yet to weigh in on either side and not much line movement has occurred at the time of writing.

The over/under has plummeted, though, as the under has been hit hard by pros and Joes, alike.

With a steam move, 75% of bets and 93% of dollars, the onslaught of under activity has caused the total to fall from 48 to 45 (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Patriots “finally” broke their losing streak last week against the Bills. However, a last-second touchdown from Josh Allen covered the spread for the Bills, forcing New England into a spot it has not been since January 2015.

Since 2010, Tom Brady is 3-0 straight up and against the spread coming off at least a three-game ATS losing streak, per our Bet Labs data.  — Evan Abrams

Since 2003, Tom Brady is 33-32 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In all other games as a favorite during that time the GOAT is 98-63-6 (61%) ATS. — John Ewing

Did you know? Since 2003, there have only been four instances where the Week 17 home team has a win percentage of 60% and is coming off at least three losses against the spread in a row. The Pats are one of three teams that meet this criteria in 2018 (Texans, Chiefs). The previous four teams all failed to cover. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Patriots clinch a first-round bye with a win over the Jets. It’s also possible — but unlikely — for them to jump to the No. 1 overall seed. That would require a win and losses from the Chiefs and Chargers.

Should New England suffer an upset vs. the Jets, Brady & Co. would almost assuredly play on wild-card weekend as either the 3- or 4-seed in the AFC. Scott T. Miller