Jets-Patriots Betting Preview: Will New England Break 3-Game ATS Skid?

Betting odds: New York Jets at New England Patriots

• Spread: Patriots -13.5 
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The Pats have scared off some of the public bettors who are generally taking them no matter what, as just 53% are laying the 13.5 points in hopes that New England breaks its three game coverless streak.

Sharp bettors have yet to weigh in on either side and not much line movement has occurred at the time of writing.

The over/under has plummeted, though, as the under has been hit hard by pros and Joes, alike.

With a steam move, 75% of bets and 93% of dollars, the onslaught of under activity has caused the total to fall from 48 to 45 (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Patriots "finally" broke their losing streak last week against the Bills. However, a last-second touchdown from Josh Allen covered the spread for the Bills, forcing New England into a spot it has not been since January 2015.

Since 2010, Tom Brady is 3-0 straight up and against the spread coming off at least a three-game ATS losing streak, per our Bet Labs data.  — Evan Abrams

Since 2003, Tom Brady is 33-32 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In all other games as a favorite during that time the GOAT is 98-63-6 (61%) ATS. — John Ewing

Did you know? Since 2003, there have only been four instances where the Week 17 home team has a win percentage of 60% and is coming off at least three losses against the spread in a row. The Pats are one of three teams that meet this criteria in 2018 (Texans, Chiefs). The previous four teams all failed to cover. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Patriots clinch a first-round bye with a win over the Jets. It's also possible — but unlikely — for them to jump to the No. 1 overall seed. That would require a win and losses from the Chiefs and Chargers.

Should New England suffer an upset vs. the Jets, Brady & Co. would almost assuredly play on wild-card weekend as either the 3- or 4-seed in the AFC. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Julian Edelman vs. Buster Skrine

The best place to attack the Jets defense is in the middle of the field, as it ranks 13th in defensive DVOA on passes both the left and right, but 25th over the middle.

Since returning from suspension in Week 5, Edelman ranks second in the league in slot targets (63) and receptions (45) and third in yards (516), per data from Pro Football Focus.

He should be able to feast on Skrine, who has allowed a 75% completion rate, 8.6 yards per target, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, which translates to a 121.0 passer rating when targeted. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Patriots

Neither team will be resting starters in this one, so expect Tom Brady & Co. to attack hobbled cornerback Mo Claiborne (shoulder, ankle) while attempting to take advantage of a front-seven that could be without linebackers Jordan Jenkins (ankle) and Kevin Pierre-Louis (shoulder).

Wide receiver Robby Anderson should continue to work as Sam Darnold’s favorite target with neither Quincy Enunwa (ankle) nor Jermaine Kearse (Achilles) expected to suit up.

The potential absence of kicker Jason Myers (hip) certainly isn’t ideal for the Jets, either.

Meanwhile, the only Patriots on the injury report are backup tight end Jacob Hollister (hamstring) and full-time running back/part-time wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (knee).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Anderson has balled out ever since Darnold returned from injury in Week 14. He’s undoubtedly helped win a couple fantasy championships along the way.

• Weeks 1-13: 27 receptions, 416 yards, 3 TDs, PPR WR65
• Weeks 14-16: 20 receptions, 312 yards, 3 TDs, PPR WR2

Only DeAndre Hopkins has scored more points than Anderson over the past three weeks, and injuries to each of Enunwa (ankle) and Kearse (Achilles) ensure that Anderson's monstrous workload should remain intact.

Overall, Anderson (31) easily leads the likes of Chris Herndon (13), Eli McGuire (13) and Kearse (11) in targets since Sam Darnold returned in Week 14.

Still, the Patriots have proven to be Anderson's kryptonite over the years, as he's been held to less than 50 receiving yards in five of six career matchups and has yet to find the end zone against Bill Belichick & Co.

Gilmore held Anderson (2-22-0) in check back in Week 12, although that was with both Enunwa and Kearse active.

Anderson carries a 23-point projected ceiling at $5,600 on DraftKings in our FantasyLabs Models. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Jets +13.5

The Patriots have something to play for in Week 17. With a win New England secures the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye.

The Pats should be properly motivated for this matchup, but the line is still inflated. According to The Action Network's NFL simulations, New England is projected to win by 9.1 points on average.

The Jets should be able to score and keep this relatively close. New York has averaged 27.3 points per game in its past four games, while the Patriots defense ranks 19th in Football Outsiders DVOA and is allowing 21.5 PPG, the worst mark for a New England defense since 2002 (21.6 PPG). — John Ewing

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.