The New York Jets (3-11) and New Orleans Saints (4-10) will face off in NFL Week 16 on Sunday, Dec. 21. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Saints are 6.5-point favorites on the spread (Saints -6.5), with the over/under set at 40.5 total points. The Saints are -275 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Jets are +225 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Jets vs Saints prediction for today's Week 16 game.
Jets vs Saints Prediction
- Jets vs Saints pick: Saints -6
My Jets vs Saints best bet is on the Saints to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jets vs Saints Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Jets vs Saints NFL Week 16 Preview
Kellen Moore isn’t going to win coach of the year, but he has restored optimism in New Orleans. The future of the Saints feels brighter than it has in recent years, and much of the credit goes to Moore and his orchestration of the offense.
Obviously, the drafting of Tyler Shough turned some heads, and admittedly, it came with skepticism from the moment Shough was named the starter. However, there is no denying what the rookie quarterback is putting on tape.
Since Week 10, Shough leads the NFL in completion percentage at 70%. Over that same span, he ranks 13th in yards per pass attempt.
Shough is a full 10% above expectation in completion percentage in those five games, and one of the more impressive aspects of his play during this time is that he has only thrown to his first read on 61% of attempts.
That is a relatively low number, and usually, you only see seasoned quarterbacks going through progressions in the passing game at that level. For context, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy also have a 61% first-read percentage since Week 10.
The questions surrounding Shough coming into the NFL had to do with his ability to deal with pressure. Not only is he improving in this area, but he has added an element of mobility to his game that may have been overlooked.
The good news for Shough entering today’s game versus the Jets is that he should be quite comfortable inside the pocket. New York ranks 30th in pressure rate this season.
Shough’s counterpart on Sunday will be undrafted free agent rookie Brady Cook, who was serviceable a week ago against Jacksonville, but his 63 attempts in totality have been incredibly inefficient.
Cook has thrown five interceptions and has averaged just 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Dillon Gabriel is the only quarterback league-wide who has a worse average out of those with significant playing time.
Another issue facing the Jets is their inability to generate a consistent push in the running game. They rank 27th in adjusted line yards per carry, and things won’t be getting any easier for them in New Orleans.
The Saints boast the 12th-best DVOA when defending the run, a number that becomes even more impressive when considering they have faced the highest percentage of rushes by opposing offenses in the league this year.
Surprisingly, the Saints' pass rush ranks 10th in adjusted sack rate. Since they don’t often get in situations to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback, we haven’t seen their ability to win on third and long often. They will have an abundance of opportunities to do just that against the Jets, and it's worth noting that Cook’s passer rating under duress this season sits at 12.9.
Jets vs Saints Prediction, Betting Analysis
Last week, Carolina desperately needed a victory, and the Saints limited them to just 14 first downs while generating 27 first downs themselves. The Jets defense will allow the Saints to sustain drives once again and move the chains at will without facing much resistance.
The New York defense is allowing an average of 31.2 PPG over its last five games. At the risk of sounding a bit crazy, I like the Saints to win with a margin in this spot.
Pick: Saints -6
Spread
Take the Saints to cover the spread.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
