NFL Best Bets Week 13 | Expert Sunday ATS, Over/Under Picks

Our staff has found its favorite NFL picks for Week 13's Sunday afternoon's two slates of games. Check out the spreads and totals that make up our NFL best bets we're on below. Click on a pick to navigate this file.

By Mike Calabrese

This total comes down to two things: quarterback play and defensive liabilities.

Left for dead after a 1-5 start, Denver was linked to the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes. Russell Wilson's QBR in those first six games sat at 43.4, and he bottomed out in a 19-8 loss in Kansas City. He was sacked four times, threw a pair of interceptions, and failed to reach 100 yards through the air.

But a funny thing happened after that game: The Broncos and Wilson pulled out of their tailspin and began playing winning football offensively. His QBR has jumped from 43.4 to 65.1 during their five-game winning streak and Denver has stopped turning the ball over. The Broncos have just three giveaways in their past five games. Most impressively, Denver scored 29 points last week against a Cleveland defense that was ranked first in DVOA. Now, the Broncos face a leaky Texans secondary (27th in Pass Defense) that struggles to get after the quarterback (25th sack rate).

The Denver defense has improved during this win streak but is still dead last in defensive DVOA. Their run defense is historically bad, which is great news for Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce. Pierce hasn't been the same back since injuring his ankle, but he's slid into a complementary role behind Singletary at this point.

Then there's the presumptive NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in C.J. Stroud, who has exploded in the past month to the tune of 366.5 passing yards per game on an aggressive 9.5 yards per attempt average over the past month. His Achilles' heel has been taking too many sacks (seven in the past two games), but Denver can't generate any pressure without blitzing.

The final piece of this puzzle is pace. Houston plays with a slightly above-average pace while Denver prefers to slow things way down (58 plays per game, 31st). I believe Houston will win this game by getting an early lead that will force Denver out of its snail-like pace.

I'd bet this over up to 49.

By Anthony Dabbundo

The Colts have won three consecutive games to vault themselves into the AFC playoff picture despite a medley of defensive injuries and inconsistent play from Gardner Minshew at quarterback.

The Colts received yet another setback Tuesday as Jonathan Taylor was ruled out for up to 2-3 weeks with a thumb injury. Taylor is a loss in creativity and reliability for the Colts offense, but don’t discredit the work Zack Moss has done in his place this year. In fact, Moss has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in this offense, compared to 4.1 for Taylor.

The real story is that the Colts offensive line has made solid improvements year over year. The line had seen real regression in the last 1.5 seasons, but the Colts offensive line is top five in PFF Run Block Grading and top 10 in Pass Block Grading. The Colts have real advantages in the trench on both sides of the ball, and that will enable them to win this game on the road.

The loss of Taylor isn’t as relevant here because it’s so difficult to run the ball on Tennessee anyway. They’ve slid down a bit in some of the run-stop ratings, but the Titans remain second in Rush DVOA allowed.

The Colts defensive line should generate more pressure on Will Levis than the Titans do on Minshew. Indianapolis has a top 10 unit in both Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Pass Rush Grading.

The Titans finally found some offensive life because they faced one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and Derrick Henry rumbled into the end zone a couple of times. However, it’s much harder to replicate that on the Colts’ defensive front.

The weakness for the Colts defense is in the secondary, and Levis grades considerably worse than even Minshew in Success Rate and Adjusted EPA per play.

Given their advantage at quarterback and in the trenches, the Colts should be bigger favorites to win this and move to 7-5 in the heart of the AFC playoff race.

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By John LanFranca

The Dolphins offense seemingly outclasses the Commanders defense in every category, but it's important to understand this offense doesn't perform nearly as well on the road. Prior to Miami's Black Friday game against the Jets, the Dolphins had failed to score more than 20 points in four consecutive games outside of Miami. Even last week when they scored 34 points, aided by the Jets putrid offense, the Dolphins managed only 5.7 yards per play, which is down from their season average of 6.9.

The Commanders will be on 10 days' rest heading into this game, and I believe they'll push the Dolphins for all four quarters if they can avoid turning the football over. Over one-fourth of Washington's possessions at home this year have resulted in turnovers, which is nearly unsustainable. I expect the Commanders offense to keep pace for the duration of the game, which is a good bet considering teams that have lost by 17 or more points have covered at a nearly 60% rate over the last two decades.

Also, home underdogs of seven or more points in today's NFL are a near auto-bet, as they've cashed at a 62.1% rate since the beginning of 2020.

I'd bet the Commanders down to +8.5.

By Brandon Anderson

Atlanta's offense hasn't been good, and there's little reason to believe Ridder can lead this team on long scoring drives without the Jets baiting him into mistakes. There's only one definitely good unit on the field Sunday, and that's the Jets' defense, playing at home and given a field goal.

I'm not even positive the Falcons are better than the Jets, and this line implies Atlanta would be favored by five or six on a neutral field. Against the Jets elite defense? I don't see it. New York's top-five Run Stop Win Rate can slow the Falcons' rushing attack, and I think the Jets can win outright in an ugly one.

Underdogs that have scored 16 points or less in three straight — like the Jets — cover 64% of the time, while underdogs of four or less in games with totals below 42 are 61% ATS. Be sure to grab +3 if you can, but otherwise, shop around for the best number. Every single point will be precious here, and three of Atlanta's wins have come by one, two and three points.

Pick: Jets +2 (-110)

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By Anthony Dabbundo

No one is more relieved to see Myles Garrett on the injury report than Rams quarterback Matt Stafford. The Rams decimated the Cardinals secondary last week, and now Stafford may not have to face one of the three best defensive players on Earth.

Garrett said he heard something pop in his shoulder during the game on Sunday, and then the MRI revealed no structural damage.

The plan is for Garrett to play through the pain, as long as he can handle the soreness. But a limited Garrett dramatically changes the outlook for the NFL’s best defense. He’s such a massive disruptor and someone the entire offense has to scheme around that the Browns defense will regress significantly without him.

The market is pricing this Browns defense at a god-tier level right now, and it’s just not sustainable as they start to play better quarterbacks. In the modern NFL, good quarterbacks will move the ball if they’re playing well and have time in the pocket. If Garrett isn’t 100% or can’t play, Rams -3.5 is stealing given the massive gulf in the quality of quarterbacks. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has a concussion and is out, which means we get to see Joe Flacco start this game.

The Ravens, Seahawks and even Broncos have moved the ball at times on this defense. If the Rams get to 20, it’s hard to see how they don’t cover this spread.

Pick: Rams -3.5 (-115)

By Brandon Anderson

I love the 49ers here. This is my favorite side of the week and a matchup I’ve been waiting for all season, and I already grabbed San Francisco on the Hot Read on Sunday night at -110 on the moneyline.

I'm fading an Eagles team that’s clearly good, but also a bit overrated. Philadelphia is a good team masquerading as elite, second in our Luck Rankings thanks to a 7–1 record in one-score games, five of those against teams .500 or worse. Elite teams shouldn’t be in so many toss-up games against inferior opponents. The Eagles have trailed at halftime in four straight games and have been outgained by at least 98 yards in all four. It matters that they won those games, but the struggles getting over the finish line matter too.

But this isn’t just a blind Philly fade.  I love this matchup for the 49ers because San Francisco will dominate the middle of the field. Kyle Shanahan unlocks the middle of the field with his offense better than anyone, and Philadelphia’s defense is built to sacrifice the middle of the field and invest on the line and at corner. The linebackers are weak, and the 49ers will attack that weakness with 21 and 22 personnel. Christian McCaffrey is a nightmare matchup, and George Kittle should have a huge day against a pass defense that ranks 32nd by DVOA against TEs.

The 49ers rank first in DVOA on first and second down, while the Eagles are 22nd defensively on first down. On defense, the 49ers are also built to win the middle of the field with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw perhaps more capable than any linebackers in the league to handle Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia’s rushing attack. The Eagles' run game also hasn’t been as strong this season and is further compromised by the Lane Johnson injury.

It's time, 49ers fans. You've been waiting for this one.

Pick: 49ers -3 (-110)

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By Stuckey

I'm going right back to the well with an Eagles fade after they somehow pulled out a fourth straight one-possession victory despite getting outgained by 100-plus yards in each. That brings Philly, which sits at No. 2 in our season-long luck metrics, to 7-1 in one-possession games this year.

The Eagles have gotten every possible bounce over the past month with last week's magic coming in the form of positive penalty and field goal variance. Regression looms in the City of Brotherly Love.

The Eagles are still one of the best three teams in the NFC — and one of only seven I see as a realistic Super Bowl contender — but they aren't playing anywhere close to the level we saw last season on either side of the ball despite a league-best 10-1 record. Jalen Hurts continues to trend in the right direction health-wise, but he clearly doesn't have his peak burst, which makes the entire offense much less dynamic and easier to defend.

Philly could still be without star right tackle Lane Johnson, which would be a massive loss up front against a San Francisco defense that has two bona fide edge rushers. It's hard to ever doubt Johnson, who stated that he thinks he will play, but I could see the Eagles holding him out with a groin injury in potentially rainy conditions. The weather makes it dicey, not to mention the Cowboys are on deck in Week 14.

This also sets up as an amazing situational and scheduling spot for the 49ers. I'm sure they've had this game circled for close to a calendar year after losing in the NFC Championship Game without a quarterback. I assume Kyle Shanahan has been working on the script for this rematch since the minute that game ended.

Additionally, the 49ers should come into this game much healthier overall — it looks like the offensive line will finally be at full strength — with an enormous rest advantage. After the Eagles avenged their Super Bowl loss in a 60-minute battle in Kansas City, they came back home on a short week to face Buffalo in a game that went to overtime where their defense was on the field for a whopping 92 plays.

Philly suffered a few key injuries at linebacker (it will likely miss Zach Cunningham this week at a position where it's lacking depth) and along the defensive line, which forced both Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis to log career-high snap counts. The Eagles defense has to be absolutely gassed.

Conversely, the 49ers played on Thanksgiving, which gives them extra time to rest and prepare for this highly anticipated NFC showdown. They've also won three straight in blowout fashion and should have fresh legs on both sides of the ball. Now 100% healthy, the 49ers offense is rolling. At full strength, they have the best offense in the league, and they are capable of exploiting Philly's weak coverage over the middle of the field, specifically against the slot and tight end.

I love the 49ers. Not only is this a great situational and scheduling spot, but they are also rolling on both sides and match up extremely well with an Eagles team that isn't performing at their peak right now.

Trending: Teams with a 90% or greater win percentage in Week 13 or later have gone 23-41-1 ATS (35.9%) over the past 20 seasons, failing to cover by just under a FG per game. It makes sense to sell at the top of the market with teams people don't want to fade.

By Anthony Dabbundo

The unquestioned game of the week in the NFL is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday as the best team in the NFL (by market power rating) visits the team with the best record in the NFL.

The Eagles have won four consecutive games despite being outgained in all four, and none were more extreme than the Sunday comeback against the Bills. The Eagles threw for just 33 yards in the first half, trailed 17-7 at the break and allowed 500 yards of offense to Buffalo yet came back to tie the game late in regulation and walk it off in overtime.

The Eagles unquestionably have some high-leverage advantages over other teams because they’re well-run as an organization. High-leverage third and fourth downs give them an edge in red-zone and short-down sequences. Their defensive line depth also keeps their top rushers fresh for key downs late in games to keep pressure on the opposing quarterback.

When the 49ers have been healthy this year, they’ve moved the ball up and down the field on every defense they’ve faced. Dropping 42 points on the Cowboys was especially impressive, and the 49ers have scored at least 27 in every other game that Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel have started and finished.

Jalen Hurts is the MVP favorite because the Eagles have the best record, but Brock Purdy has been the most efficient passer in the NFL. Purdy has a 56.6% Dropback Success Rate this season, which is 3.2% better than every other passer in the NFL.

The gap between Purdy and the second-most efficient QB (Dak Prescott) is as big as the gap between Prescott and Hurts in seventh. San Francisco’s offense is elite at using the middle of the field, whereas Philadelphia is weakest defensively.

The idea you’ll hear is that the Eagles defensive line can generate pressure on Purdy and rattle him into mistakes. Even when pressured this year, Purdy is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and has eight Big Time Throws.

The market has been too high on the Eagles defense for most of the season — especially the secondary — and instead of laying points with the 49ers on the road, I’m targeting their team total instead.

The Eagles defense played 90+ plays last week, and the 49ers have extra rest to get ready for this one. Philadelphia may score enough to keep up, but I’m betting on San Francisco to score early and often in Philadelphia.