Vikings vs. Seahawks Betting Pick: Over/Under Offering Value on Monday Night Football

Credit:

James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson

Dec 02, 2019, 11:35 AM EST
  • The Seahawks-Vikings total has increased from 49 to 49.5 on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable over/under strategy that applies to this game.

Generally speaking, recreational NFL bettors like cheering for points. In fact, in 4,451 games in the Bet Labs database, the over has received a majority of bets in 3,787 games (85.1%) since 2003.

Oddsmakers know the public tends to bet the over. As a result, bookmakers shade the line, which creates value for contrarian gamblers to bet the under.

When the line increase by at least one point, the under has gone 613-588-21 (51.0%) since 2003. In high-total games (45 or more points) during the same time, unders are 895-818-23 (52.2%).

Neither trend in itself is profitable, but combined an interesting trend emerges. Since 2003, in high-total games when the over/under increases by one or more points the under has gone 346-309-10 (53.0%).