Freedman: 6 NFL Trends Bettors Should Know for Week 7
David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11).
- With Week 7 approaching, Matthew Freedman has outlined six trends that could help bettors profit over the weekend.
- They touch on games including Chiefs-Broncos, Ravens-Seahawks and Patriots-Jets.
Although I am not a “trends bettor,” I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Using the Bet Labs database, I have uncovered six NFL trends I like for Week 7.
Odds as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Thursday Night Football
Chiefs -3.5 at Broncos
This line feels like a clear case of recency bias: The Chiefs have lost two straight games, and the Broncos have won two straight.
But the Chiefs are still 4-2 while the Broncos are 2-4, and going back to last season, the Chiefs are 16-6, whereas the Broncos are 8-14.
And the Chiefs are one of the league’s few teams to score more points on the road than at home. Under head coach Andy Reid (since 2013), the Chiefs have an NFL-high road/home offensive differential of +3.3 points.
Given their penchant for road scoring, Reid’s Chiefs have been the league’s best visiting team against the spread during his tenure, racking up a 33-17-1 road record, good for an A-graded 29.7% return on investment.
Sunday, 1 pm ET
Packers -7 vs. Raiders
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has notable home/away ATS splits.
- Home: 50-28-3 | 24.7% ROI
- Away: 42-39-1 | 1.9% ROI
In the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers are the only team in the league that ranks top-five in home/away scoring differential for both offense and defense, as they have averaged 3.7 more points per game at home than on the road and held opponents to a league-best 4.9 fewer points in Green Bay.
As a result, they have an NFL-high 8.5-point overall home/away scoring differential. At Lambeau Field, they truly have a home-field advantage.
Texans +1.5 vs. Colts
Quarterback Deshaun Watson has been his best in adverse circumstances. His career doesn’t offer a huge sample of games, but his splits are suggestive (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
- Underdog (13 games): 270.2 yards and 2.31 touchdowns passing, 39.3 yards and 0.62 touchdowns rushing
- Favorite (16 games): 249.7 yards and 1.69 touchdowns passing, 29.6 yards and 0.25 touchdowns rushing
- Road (14 games): 270.1 yards and 1.86 touchdowns passing, 38.1 yards and 0.50 touchdowns rushing
- Home (15 games): 248.5 yards and 2.07 touchdowns passing, 30.1 yards and 0.33 touchdowns rushing
And we see these same splits reflected in his ATS record. As a dog, he is 9-3 (48.4% ROI). On the road, he is 9-4-1 (33.8% ROI).
And as a road dog, he is an outstanding 8-2 ATS (57.9% ROI).
Sunday, 4 pm ET
Seahawks -3.5 vs. Ravens
The home-field advantage the Seahawks have at CenturyLink Field with the famed “12th Man” is legitimate.
Under HC Pete Carroll (since 2010), the Seahawks at home have on average scored 7.8 points more than their opponents. They are No. 3 with that differential, trailing only the Tom Brady-led Patriots and Aaron Rodgers-led Packers over that time.
Defensively, the Seahawks are a handful at home. In the Carroll era, they are No. 2 with just 18.7 points per game allowed. Only the hard-nosed Ravens have held visitors to fewer points.
And they are also significantly better at CenturyLink on offense. On the road, they have averaged 21.6 points per game. At home, 26.5. That home/road offensive differential of +4.9 points is No. 3 in the league.
With Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 46-32-3 ATS (15.1% ROI). And that includes six postseason games.
Sunday Night Football
Eagles +3 at Cowboys
The Cowboys have a head coach in Jason Garrett who consistently gets the least from his players. Under his gum-chewing, hand-clapping regime (since 2010), the Cowboys have routinely played down to the level of their opponents.
In the situations where Garrett’s Cowboys have had an edge, they have consistently underperformed.
At home, the Cowboys have allowed visiting teams to go 42-30-2 ATS (13.9%). As favorites, they have coughed up a record of 49-35-3 ATS (13.9% ROI) to underdog opponents.
And as home favorites, the Cowboys have allowed road dogs to go 34-19-1 ATS (25.8%). No coach in the league has been more profitable to bet against as a home favorite than Garrett.
I would know. I’m a Cowboys fan.
Monday Night Football
Patriots -10 at Jets
In the history of the Bet Labs database (since 2003), the Patriots are 157-97-8 ATS (21.3% ROI).
I feel like that trend on its own should be enough. HC Bill Belichick gets the job done. On average, the typical outcome for a Pats game is a cover of +3.88 points. That’s a massive margin.
And Belichick is even less generous against poor opponents. When facing teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season, the Patriots are 110-58-5 ATS (27.9% ROI). On average, they have scored 4.79 points more than their non-playoff opponents.
Under the Belichick regime, the Pats have been a “no mercy” franchise. When they face bad teams, they don’t just win. They lay it on. They punish their opponents. They humiliate them for even bothering to step onto the field.
In other words, they cover.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Pats relative to the Jets will have three extra days to rest and prepare because they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.
To see the bets I’m making for Week 7, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my card into the weekend.