Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
Here are my two NFL interception props for Week 6:
NFL Interception Props for Week 6
- Bryce Young to Throw an Interception (-105; DraftKings)
- Geno Smith to Throw an Interception(-115; bet365)
Bryce Young to Throw an Interception (-105)
Panthers QB Bryce Young has improved significantly since his rookie season, but he still tends to have issues with turnovers. The third-year QB has four interceptions through five games, and I think he could have another interception on Sunday against the Cowboys.
As a Cowboys fan, I have no issue admitting they are a disaster when it comes to defending the pass. They’ve allowed the most passing touchdowns and have the fewest passes defended in the NFL (nine), which means when the ball goes up, there typically isn’t a Cowboys defender nearby.
That being said, the Cowboys offense has been on fire, so they can counteract some of their defensive miscues by pushing the pace and forcing their opponent to keep throwing the ball.
Another factor for why I think Young is set to get picked off is that his turnover-worthy plays are pretty even whether he’s facing pressure or not. Young has eight total TWPs (sixth amongst all QBs) with four vs. pressure and four when kept clean.
The Cowboys have surprisingly been able to get some pressure this year without blitzing; they rank fourth in pressure rate per dropback.
Last season, the Cowboys came to Carolina and completely overwhelmed Young, who had two fumbles and two interceptions.
Geno Smith to Throw an Interception (-115)
This might just be the season of hell for Raiders QB Geno Smith.
Frankly, the writing has been on the wall since the start of last season for Smith; he threw a pick in nine of 17 games (15 total), but this year with Las Vegas, he’s getting further exposed.
Entering Week 6, Smith leads the NFL with 10 turnover-worthy plays while also having nine interceptions in five games. His TWP rate is consistent whether he’s facing pressure or not, and his lack of a safety blanket (TE Brock Bowers) is clearly starting to affect his ability to limit turnovers.
The Titans aren’t exactly a defense I’m actively trying to invest in, but they’ve been sneaky with some interceptions this year, like when they turned over QB Matthew Stafford and QB Bo Nix.
I expect the Raiders to lean on RB Ashton Jeanty as much as possible in this matchup, but if sportsbooks are going to give me the NFL INT leader at -115, I’m going to take that every time.
