NFL Odds & Picks For Packers vs. Titans: Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers
- Diminished home-field advantage. Poor weather forecast. A key matchup advantage.
- Senior NFL betting analyst Chris Raybon explains why he's backing the underdog on Sunday Night Football.
- Find his full preview of the matchup and argument for the Titans covering this short spread against the Packers below.
NFL Odds: Packers vs. Titans
How should you bet a cold-weather matchup at Lambeau between two of the NFL’s best offenses? Let’s find out.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP-caliber season, but the Packers’ pass game surprisingly struggled for much of their 24-16 win over the Panthers last week. Carolina ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, but Rodgers threw for only 143 yards and took five sacks.
Because of how reliant the Packers are on Devante Adams, they’re liable to have a clunker every once in a while if Adams doesn’t have a monster game — and he was held to 5.0 yards per reception on seven catches against the Panthers.
Rodgers and Co. should be able to rebound in this spot, as the Titans rank 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Titans have also been horrid on third down, allowing an NFL-high 52.6% conversion rate on third down.
With that said, the forecast calls for double-digit winds throughout, and the gusts should work to benefit the Titans, who present a tougher matchup in run defense (16th in DVOA) than the Panthers (22nd), who were gashed by Aaron Jones for 145 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries
The Titans also get a major boost with Adoree’ Jackson back — he ranked 20th of 135 corners by Pro Football Focus last season and was stellar in his first game last week, allowing only 13 yards on three targets in 21 snaps in coverage.
The weather also could also diminish another one of the Packers’ biggest advantages: The kicking game. Mason Crosby is a perfect 16-of-16 on field goals while Stephen Gostkowski is 18-of-26 (69.2%).
The Titans are one of the few teams that can go score-for-score with the Packers — Tennessee ranks one spot behind Green Bay in offensive DVOA and one spot ahead in points per game.
With Jackson back, the Titans don’t have many concerns on the health front and again resemble a team that reached the AFC Championship Game last season.
Derrick Henry makes Tennessee an ideal late-season team. In 40 career games in November, December and January, Henry has piled up 3,378 yards and 37 touchdowns on 602 carries, good for an absurd mark of 5.56 yards per carry compared to a more pedestrian 506/2,069/4.09/16 line in 36 games in September and October.
The Titans’ over record is 10-3-1 this season and 19-4-1 in Ryan Tannehill’s 24 career starts as a Titan, but I would worry about this game going over if the forecast holds. Snow doesn’t tend to much much of a factor, but double-digit winds have proven to lower efficiency in both the passing and kicking games.
As far as the side, I have this projected at Titans +1.75, so there’s a small edge at +3 and a larger edge if the line moves above the key number of 3 to +3.5 or higher.
Home-field advantage has all but evaporated around the NFL this season, and not even Lambeau is exempt: The Packers have failed to cover at home in three of their last five and are just 4-3 in Lambeau on the season. As of early Sunday afternoon, betting action has been nearly equal ticket-wise — 44% on the Titans 44% vs. 56% on the Packers (go to real-time public betting data) — but 89% of the money is on Tennessee, which means you’ll likely have to settle for +3 if you’re betting this pre-game.
After being the second-most profitable home-team against the spread from 2008-16 with a 43-26-1 (62.3%) record, the Packers have been middling since, going 16-15 ATS (51.6%) with a -1.34 cover margin according to our Bet Labs data. In terms of DVOA, the Titans have the edge over the Packers in rush offense (second vs. fifth) and rush defense (16th vs. 21st) — a key factor because of the weather.
Pick: Titans +3 or better