Jaguars vs. Titans Odds & Picks: How To Bet This NFL Shootout In Week 14
Brett Carlsen/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
Jaguars vs. Titans Odds
The Titans (8-4) are tied atop the AFC South with the Colts. Now Tennessee looks primed for another playoff run.
The Titans will face off against the Jaguars, who have lost 11 straight games since a Week 1 upset of the Colts. Can the Jaguars find a way to stay competitive against their nemesis in running back Derrick Henry?
Tennessee had won two straight games before last week’s 41-35 loss at home to Cleveland. The Titans’ offense has been scalding hot, with consecutive point totals of 30, 45 and 35 points.
The game plan against Jacksonville has been historically simple: Pound the ball with Henry. Over his past seven games against the Jaguars, Henry has had an automatic 100-plus rushing yards and a touchdown:
Jacksonville enters this game ranked just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing backs. The Jaguars have also allowed the third-most receptions to running backs, as well, keeping the door open for that occasional long Henry touchdown catch and run.
Ryan Tannehill has been getting hot at the right time, tallying consecutive fantasy QB9, QB8, and QB2 performances the past three weeks.
A.J. Brown did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but he was a full participant on Friday, setting him up perfectly for a fantastic matchup — the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, sixth-most receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns.
Fellow wide receiver Corey Davis tallied the overall fantasy WR1 performances in Week 13 with 11 receptions, 182 receiving yards and a touchdown. He’ll matchup against cornerback Luq Barcoo, who ranks just 117th in coverage rating per PlayerProfiler.
The Titans offense will also celebrate the return of uber-efficient tight end Jonnu Smith, who is tied for first at the position with eight total touchdowns.
Tennessee’s biggest concern is generating a pass rush. The Titans have the second-fewest sacks (14) in the NFL and failed to even record one against the Browns. The Titans have also allowed an average of 31 points over their past five home games.
Jacksonville’s main concern is running back James Robinson (knee), who was limited throughout the week. That said, he is expected to start, which would be a huge relief for a Jaguars offense that’s completely centered around their lead back.
The undrafted rookie from Illinois State has seen one of the highest workloads of any running back. Robinson ranks third among all NFL running backs in rushing yards (968) while ranking fifth in targets (56). Per PlayerProfiler, Robinson also ranks first at the position with an 86% opportunity share.
Regardless of the game script, Robinson will be heavily involved against a Tennessee run defense that’s allowed the sixth-most scheduled-adjusted fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 15 total touchdowns.
Veteran quarterback Mike Glennon has filled in admirably under center while showing a propensity to throw the ball deep. Per EstablishTheRun, Glennon has attempted the second-highest rate of passes for 20 or more yards (25%) among 26 qualified quarterbacks.
Jacksonville has created five legitimate receiving options, opting for volume over efficiency. D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, Shenault, Chris Conley and Tyler Eifert (questionable) have all seen at least 46 targets on the season. Rookie Collin Johnson has also shown a rapport with Glennon, taking 14 targets and eight receptions over Jacksonville’s past two games.
The Jaguars’ poor defensive play has forced the offense to be more aggressive, and it’s responded with at least 24 points in each of the past two games. In a home matchup with little resistance from the Titans pass rush, the Jaguars have the depth of offensive playmakers who provide a path to exceed their projected 23-point team total.
The first time these two teams met back in Week 2, the Titans escaped with a 33-30 victory. With a weather forecast of 74 degrees and limited wind, there’s no reason to doubt another high-scoring affair.
Tennessee is 21-4-1 to the over in the regular season with Tannehill at quarterback, including 9-2-1 this season. I’m taking the over 51.5 in a matchup that has the second-highest total on Sunday’s slate and would bet it up to 53.5 points.
Pick: Over 51.5