NFL Odds & Sharp Picks: How Pros Are Betting Week 13 Spreads & Totals
Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas, left, and Atlanta Falcons defender Ricardo Allen.
NFL betting value can come from anywhere. Recreational bettors overwhelmingly enjoy getting down on the week’s biggest games, especially those in primetime.
However, that doesn’t mean that Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night games are the best bets. Sure, those matchups can certainly offer an edge, but so can the ugliest games on the slate — and that’s exactly what is transpiring on the Week 13 card.
Casual bettors are flocking to Browns vs. Titans, while sharps are quietly taking positions on Lions vs. Bears (1 p.m. ET, FOX), Saints vs. Falcons (1 p.m. ET, FOX) and Raiders vs. Jets (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Using our NFL PRO Report we can quickly pinpoint which bets the pros are making.
NFL Picks: Lions vs. Bears
Interestingly, wiseguys have hit the Lions vs. Bears under twice this week, yet the total still sits a market consensus of 45.
With that said, many books have dipped to 44.5 (click here for live NFL odds).
As is often the case, a vast bets-vs.-dollars discrepancy confirms the sharp action.
Fifty-eight percent of tickets have played the under, yet that slight majority accounts for a very one-sided 79% of the loot.
This tells us everything we need to know regarding the opinion of the market’s most respected bettors.
It’s clear that sharps are on the Lions vs. Bears under, and according to our Divisional Unders PRO Betting System, it’s for good reason.
Since 2005 games between divisional opponents with higher totals have trended toward the under.
Games fitting this system’s criteria have gone under the closing number 62% of the time across a sample of 326 matches over that span.
There are currently five Week 13 games that match our Divisional Unders PRO System, and since this angle applies only to games within a specific over/under range, it’s important to track all of the system’s picks in real-time.
PRO Report Pick: Under 45
NFL Picks: Saints vs. Falcons
Just two weeks ago, the Saints, with Taysom Hill at quarterback, easily beat the Falcons, 24-9, but pro bettors expect a much closer rematch.
On Monday this line was available at +3.5, but sharps made sure that the hook disappeared quite quickly.
Multiple waves of smart Falcons money flooded the market to drive this spread to +3, where it has sat since early in the week.
Since 2003, 14.8% of NFL games have finished with a margin of victory of three points, illustrating why Atlanta +3.5 was in such high demand.
And remember, sharps bet numbers, not teams, and this is a prime example.
It takes money to convince oddsmakers to move a spread off a number as important as 3 in the NFL.
While attracting just 46% of all bets, those tickets account for 66% of the money, revealing that sportsbooks have been bombarded with big Falcons bets throughout the week.
The Action Network’s team of analysts are in agreement with three of our NFL betting experts taking the home underdogs in this matchup.
PRO Report Pick: Falcons +3
NFL Picks: Raiders vs. Jets
Welcome to your classic sharps vs. squares disagreement!
The Raiders opened as 8-point favorites, but wiseguys quickly made the unpopular decision to jump on the Jets, steaming this spread down to a market consensus of 7.5.
Convincing yourself to bet on the winless Jets isn’t easy, and that’s exactly why 65% of bettors are laying more than a touchdown with Las Vegas.
However, while the public wants no part of New York, the Jets have landed (airplane joke) 61% of dollars wagered, which, combined with the steam tracked by Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, sets up clear a sharps vs. squares divide on this matchup.
Need more than just the opinions of the market’s smartest bettors to push you over the edge?
Enter our Team ATS Records PRO Betting System.
This angle is 181-115-11 (61%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005 by identifying undervalued teams based on season-long ATS records.
As I’m sure you can deduce, the Jets are a match today against the Raiders.
Our experts are rolling with the sharps on this one with four of The Action Network’s top NFL bettors snagging New York and the points as well.
And as all experts bettors do, visit our NFL live odds page to shop for the best Raiders vs. Jets line.
While the consensus has dropped to 7.5, there are still plenty of Jets +8s available, so be sure to peruse the market and pick off one of those 8s (like BetMGM’s delightful +8 at -110) if you’re planning on tailing this play.
PRO Report Pick: Jets +8