Week 9 NFL Picks for Every Late Afternoon Game
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers
- Our experts reveal how they're betting Sunday's main slate of Week 9 NFL games.
- Find their spread and over/under picks for Packers-Chargers and the rest of the afternoon games below.
There’s a lot of action to pack between the early London game and Sunday Night Football showdown, so to help you find the best edges, we’ve compiled all of our experts’ favorite bets.
You’ll find spread and over/under picks for the following games outlined below:
- Bears at Eagles: 1 p.m. ET
- Colts at Steelers: 1 p.m. ET
- Jets at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
- Redskins at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
- Titans at Panthers: 1 p.m. ET
- Lions at Raiders: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Buccaneers at Seahawks: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Packers at Chargers: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Browns at Broncos: 4:25 p.m. ET
Now let’s dig in.
Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Mike Randle: Eagles -4 vs. Bears
After David Montgomery’s overall RB7 breakout performance against the Chargers, the Bears would hope to keep his momentum going this week at Philadelphia. However, the Eagles’ stout run defense provides much more resistance than the Chargers did at Soldier Field.
Last week’s 31-13 destruction of Buffalo on the road provides hope that Philadelphia has started its annual late push toward the playoffs. Since losing defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, Chicago has allowed 4.26 yards per carry six total rushing touchdowns over the past three games. Look for a “revenge game” from motivated former Bears running back Jordan Howard, whom the Eagles may give plenty of carries.
Mitch Trubisky has struggle, and he’s been especially bad under pressure. He ranks 30th among all signal-callers with just a 26% completion percentage when under duress.
The Bears need their running game to ease the burden off their below-average passing game. Trubisky ranks 29th in passing yards and 30th with only five passing touchdowns this season. This line has climbed from three to five points, but it still isn’t high enough.
I would bet this up to -6. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Chris Raybon: Steelers +1 vs. Colts
The Steelers are 3-4 while the Colts are 5-2 with a signature win over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs still fresh in everyone’s minds, but make no mistake: This is a coin-flip game.
The Steelers are understandably hard to get a read on; their three wins have come against the Bengals, Chargers and Dolphins, who are a combined 3-20. I think it’s more telling, though, that their four losses have come against teams that are a combined 26-4 — to the Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks and Ravens — and three of those losses were by four or fewer points.
Defense is the Steelers’ strength: Their ranked ninth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA — which would obviously be even better if you remove the game against the Pats — and that defense should pose problems for a Colts offense that struggled to eke out a 15-13 win over Denver last week at home.
Also a concern for the Colts in what’s projected to be a close game is the worn-out leg of their 46-year-old relic of a placekicker, Adam Vinatieri, who has missed four field goals and, even more troubling, four extra points.
This is a battle of two well-coached teams adept at masking their deficiencies, but give me the team with the more ferocious defense getting points at home. Per our Bet Labs data, Mike Tomlin is 32-17-2 (65%) against the spread as an underdog, including 8-3-2 (73%) ATS as a home ‘dog. He’s a good bet to pad that total. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
PJ Walsh: Jets -3 at Dolphins
This is among the worst matchups of the NFL season so far, but that doesn’t mean it’s not providing a solid betting opportunity.
Not only does our Bet Labs tool power our Pro Systems, but it also allows users to analyze historical data in order to find profitable trends and built their own winning systems.
My personal portfolio of systems is lighting up the Jets in this matchup, including a very simple angle that fades teams the week after going on the road to play on Monday Night Football.
Think about it — teams playing on Monday night are already at a disadvantage for their following game due to the short week, and being on the road means they have to spend some of that time traveling back home.
Teams in this spot, like Miami, are just 106-140-8 (43.1%) ATS.
And it’s not only historical angles that like the Jets in this matchup. My colleague Sean Koerner points out this “true line” is Jets -5 via his power ratings, which represents plenty of value through the key number of -4 and onto the most important number in football betting, -3. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Raybon: Redskins-Bills Under 37
Sean McDermott is a hard-nosed, defensive-minded head coach who prioritizes limiting big plays. He also has a mistake-prone quarterback in Josh Allen who must be protected. Those trends have made the Bills one of the best under bets in football.
Case in point: The under is 12-6 in Allen’s career starts.
Add in a Callahan offense attempting fewer than 20 passes per game on the other side as his team’s games have totaled 33, 9 and 28 points in his three games since taking over for Gruden, and you have the recipe for another under despite the minuscule total. And that’s before accounting for the wind factor, which, as I mentioned in the biggest mismatch section has led to a 56% hit rate for the under since 2003.
I bet this at 37, which is still available at some books. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Justin Bailey: Titans-Panthers Under 42.5
I think the Titans will struggle to move the ball in this spot against a Panthers that ranks fifth in defensive DVOA and allows just 5.1 yards per play, the fifth-best mark in the league. Additionally, the Titans rank just 26th in pace of play, and to make matters worse, starting center Ben Jones has been ruled out. His absence is an enormous setback for the Tennessee offense considering he’s one of the team’s best pass blockers and the Panthers rank second in adjusted sack rate.
The Titans are also an above-average defense, ranking 12th in defensive DVOA and allowing 5.3 yards per play. This game has 24-14 written all over it with Carolina and Tennessee ranking 20th and 27th in scoring rate this year.
I’d bet this down to 41. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: Raiders -2.5 vs. Lions
Despite an absolutely vicious schedule to start the year, the Raiders will return to their home stadium for the first time since Sept. 15 with a 3-4 record.
It starts with the offensive line, which despite dealing with injury issues all season, has performed at a high level. Per Pro Football Focus, they’ve allowed a league-low 44 pressures and rank in the top three in overall pass blocking efficiency.
Now the Raiders get a Detroit defensive front that just doesn’t excel against the run, ranking in the bottom five of the NFL in adjusted line yards, power rank and stuff rank, per Football Outsiders. That’s not ideal against an offensive front that generates push in front of up-and-coming premier back Josh Jacobs, who’s breaking tackles on 28% of his carries and leads all running backs (min. 50 carries) in PFF’s Elusive Rating ahead of only Alvin Kamara and Chris Carson.
Jacobs should keep the Raiders ahead of the sticks all game and break a few long ones.
And when Derek Carr does need to throw it, he should have time to do so in a clean pocket to find his receivers against a depleted Lions secondary.
Still, Matthew Stafford and his bandmates on the outside should shred through the air against a Raiders team that gets almost no consistent pressure and struggles to defend in the secondary, so in a game where both teams should move the ball through the air, the difference will be the Raiders’ advantage in the run game. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: Buccaneers +5 at Seahawks
This is a great spot to buy low on a team that’s much better than its record indicates. The Bucs could easily be 4-3 while the Seahawks have had a number of games break their way — five of their wins have come by one possession and four came by a total of eight points.
Realistically, Seattle should also be sitting closer to 4-3. And if this was a battle of two 4-3 teams, I don’t think we’d see -6 here. So, not only is it a bargain buy, but also a sell on Seattle.
This is a good matchup for Tampa. Seattle wants to run it as much as any team in the NFL, and the Bucs excel at stopping the run, ranking No. 1 overall in yards per rush at 3.0 with the top rush defense DVOA. Todd Bowles’ scheme and key acquisitions have given them a dominant front seven that should stuff Seattle’s run game.
I also think Jameis Winston and the dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can keep up against a Seattle defense that doesn’t generate much pressure (27th in adjusted sack rate) and is decimated with injuries in the secondary.
I’m taking the points with an undervalued Bucs team that is more than capable on the road with wins over the Rams and Panthers.
I’d take anything +4 or better. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: Chargers +4 vs. Packers
This is a good time to buy an undervalued Chargers team while selling the Packers, who were my only preseason Super Bowl future, but have been very fortunate all season.
The Chargers offense hasn’t been pretty, but getting Russell Okung back will do wonders. Plus, Melvin Gordon finally has a few games under his belt after missing so much time, so you should start to see more production out of the Wisconsin product as he gets up to game speed. And there are still some major holes in the Packers run defense, which is allowing 4.8 yards per carry (28th in the NFL).
The Chargers also hired a new offensive coordinator, which can only help. It’ll also serve as an element of surprise working in their favor as the Packers will have no idea what changes and new wrinkles are coming.
The Chargers defense has also been decimated by injuries, but you’re starting to see some improvement from a lot of the replacements after getting some valuable experience. This is still a unit with a formidable pass rush and two rock-solid corners in Desmond King in the slot and Casey Hayward on the outside.
Also, for whatever reason, the Chargers have consistently started slow in recent seasons and then turned it around about this time. Not surprisingly, Rivers is 8-2 ATS over the past three Novembers. Rivers has also been profitable as an underdog throughout his career at 42-31-4 ATS (57.5%) for an excellent 12.8% ROI.
Like most Chargers games, I expect this to come down to the final possession. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Randle: Browns-Broncos Under 39
- A quarterback making his first NFL start,
- Another quarterback leading the league in interceptions,
- And an underdog home team with the third-most efficient defense in the league.
All of this adds up to betting the under. The Broncos have not allowed a top-12 quarterback finish from the opposition.
Meanwhile, the Browns rank 10th in sacks and face a Denver offensive line that has allowed the sixth-most sacks this season. First-time starting quarterback Allen with likely be under duress for most of the game.
The only concern with losing this bet is defensive touchdowns, which I will gladly risk. The under is 3-1 on Denver home games this season. I would bet this line down to 37. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]