NFL Picks for Week 7: The 5 Spreads & Totals To Bet Right Now
Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray
Don’t wait until Sunday to start placing your Week 7 NFL bets — there’s value to be locked in early.
Find our staff’s five favorite spread and total picks heading into the week below. Note that we included books that are offering the best lines for each pick as of writing, but you can compare real-time spreads and totals across multiple sportsbooks with our NFL odds page.
Week 7 NFL Picks
Click on a pick to skip ahead to that analysis.
Chris Raybon: Browns -3 at Bengals
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL against pressure, so it wasn’t surprising that the Browns came out flat against the Steelers, getting trounced 38-7. While Pittsburgh ranks No. 1 in pressure rate (36.2% per Pro Football Reference), Cincinnati ranks 29th (15.7%), so this is a great time to buy back in on Cleveland.
The narrative coming into the week will be that the Bengals are making strides after they nearly stole one against the Colts, ultimately falling 31-27, but I still wouldn’t trust this team to outscore a Cleveland squad that averages 27.2 points per game while Cincinnati averages 21.5. The Bengals still rank 26th in yards per play (4.7), 28th in third-down conversion rate (36.0%) and 29th in red-zone touchdown rate (47.1%). And Cincinnati disappointingly failed to put Indianapolis away in a game it jumped out to a 24-7 lead and won the turnover battle, 2-1, mustering only three points over the second half.
I like the Browns up to -4.
Raybon: Packers -3.5 at Texans
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
This is another spot where I’m buying back in on a team that I bet against last week due to matchup.
While Aaron Rodgers and Co. struggled against a Bucs defense that now ranks fourth in pressure rate (25.1%), he should recapture his pre-bye groove against a Texans unit that pressures quarterbacks at the NFL’s fifth-lowest rate (16.7%). Not only do the Texans not get pressure, but they can’t stop anyone on defense, allowing 6.1 yards per play (27th), and have forced just four turnovers all season, which is tied for fifth-fewest.
And while the Packers came out of last week’s blowout with a positive outlook — Rodgers said they needed a kick in the butt — the Texans may be due for a letdown after losing a heartbreaking game to the division rival Titans in a game the Texans led by a TD with fewer than two minutes remaining, effectively ending their season.
In fact, Rodgers is 40-21-1 (66%) against the spread coming off an ATS loss in his career, and he has been nearly as strong off a straight-up loss, cashing more than 60% of the time according to our data at Bet Labs.
I like the Packers up to -4.
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Raheem Palmer: Steelers -2 at Titans
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
Despite a 5-0 record, the Titans open as 1.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers.
How many times have we seen a 5-0 team open as home underdogs? According to our Bet Labs database, it’s happened only once with the 2007 Cowboys losing as 5-point home underdogs to the eventual 16-0 Tom Brady- and Randy Moss-led Patriots.
Nonetheless, every line tells a story, and this one paints a picture that’s particularly grim for the home team.
The Titans have been on a magic carpet ride, catching every break with comeback wins against the Broncos, Jaguars and Vikings. The Titans followed that up with a 42-16 win over the Bills in which they benefited from three turnovers, scoring touchdowns on drives starting at the Buffalo 16, 12 and 26. Most recently the Titans pulled off a miraculous 42-36 comeback win over the Texans that required a missed 2-point conversion, a score with four seconds left in regulation and an opening drive touchdown in overtime in order to get the win.
To put in bluntly, the Titans have been skating on thin ice.
Tennessee’s defense is allowing 272.8 yards per game (27th), a whopping 5.1 yards per rush (30th) and 7.0 yards per pass (25th). They rank 30th in passing success rate and 22nd in rushing success rate while allowing 16% of runs to go for 20 or more yards (per Sharp Football Stats), which ranks 32nd in the NFL. All that tells us that this could be a game in which James Connor and Benny Snell Jr. dominate on the ground.
The Titans have allowed opponents to convert 57.81% of third-down attempts and to score on 14-of -16 red-zone trips (87.5%), both of which are also dead-last in the NFL.
The Titans offense has been their saving grace as they’re second in scoring with 32.8 points per game, dominating many of the same metrics in which they struggle on the defensive side of the ball. When you look at which teams they have played, it paints a clear story of their offensive dominance.
Here are their opponents’ ranks in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA — you can see that Pittsburgh is a clear step up in class compared to the rest:
- Broncos: 10th
- Vikings: 15th
- Jaguars: 32nd
- Bills: 27th
- Texans: 25th
- Steelers: 7th
Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing just 18.8 points per game (second), 4.9 yards per play (third) while ranking first in rushing success rate and fourth in passing success rate. And the Titans have to deal with the prospect of facing this vaunted Steelers pass rush that’s leading the league in sacks (24) and pressure rate (36.6%) without the services of three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. According to Pro Football Focus, he hadn’t allowed a QB sack across 130 pass-block snaps this season.
The Steelers should win this game with their defense and do enough on offense to get the win. Lay the points.
I would play up to -2.5.
Mike Randle: Steelers -2 at Titans
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
In a battle of two of the three remaining unbeaten teams, I’m expecting the Steelers to emerge victorious in Tennessee this week.
Due to COVID postponements, the Titans will play their third game in just 12 calendar days. That will be a difficult task against a Steelers defense that ranks first in pressure rate and total sacks. Pittsburgh is also one of the few defenses that can slow down Derrick Henry, ranking first in run defense DVOA. And finally, Pittsburgh’s defensive line leads the league with only 1.97 adjusted line yards allowed per attempt.
The Titans suffered a serious blow when they lost Lewan last week. They also were without wide receiver Corey Davis and lost tight end Jonnu Smith to an ankle sprain. They’ll enter this game shorthanded against one of the most physical teams in the NFL.
The Titans have been the masters of winning close games, a trend that is due for regression. With the exception of a blowout win against Buffalo, Tennessee has won four games by an average of three points per game.
Pittsburgh should find success both on the ground and in the air against the Tennessee defense.
The Titans rank 19th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. In the 42-36 overtime win against the Texans, the Titans allowed a combined 21 receptions, 276 yards and three receiving touchdowns to Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Darren Fells. And the Steelers’ passing attack features even even more weapons than the Texans, with breakout star Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Eric Ebron. Diontae Johnson should also return for Week 7.
Tennessee has enjoyed a perfect start to the season, but there are too many variables working against the Titans in this matchup. I’m backing the Steelers as the small road favorite and would do so up to -2.5.
Michael Arinze: Seahawks-Cardinals Under 56.5
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET | More Game Info
Through Week 3, overs were 29-19 (60.9%) for +8.94 units. Since then, they’ve gone 17-22-1 (43.6%) for -5.56 units. It was inevitable that at some point we would see some regression towards the mean. Bookmakers have been increasing the numbers on these totals ever so slightly to combat the deluge of over money they’ve been seeing in recent weeks.
Week 7 offers another lofty total when the Seahawks visit the Cardinals. Seattle comes in off a Week 6 bye while Arizona will be on short rest after playing this past Monday night. And with this being a divisional game, it’s safe to say that both teams are fairly familiar with the other.
The divisional angle on this game should not be ignored. In addition to the total going under the last five times these two teams played in Arizona, the total has also gone under over Arizona’s last six games and Seattle is 9-2 to the under over its past 11 games as a road favorite.
And despite their 5-0 record, the Seahawks still have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball. Per TeamRankings, they rank 29th in allowing their opponents 6.2 yards per play and they’re dead-last in allowing 471.2 total yards per game. I would expect defense to have been a key focus area over their bye week. In fact, teams in October with at least a .750-win percentage coming off more than one week of rest are 32-25 (56%) to the under:
I’d be comfortable playing this number down to 55.
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Brandon Anderson: Buccaneers -2.5 at Raiders
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET | More Game Info
Betting early in the week, I’m always looking to lock in a line I suspect will rise by the time the game kicks off — especially if that rise might put me on the wrong side of a key number.
Tampa Bay at -2.5 in a marquee Sunday Night Football spot certainly fits the bill.
Can’t you just see the Bucs getting all the media love this week? They dominated a previously-undefeated Packers squad with a ferocious defensive effort, and suddenly the Bucs look about as good as any team in the NFC. Tom Brady out-dueled Aaron Rodgers and now that offense is looking pretty scary, too, as the pieces get healthy.
Tampa is going to get the hype — but the Bucs are also really this good. They had the best defense in the league even before Sunday, then they had the highest-rated DVOA game of the entire season by any team, only improving their position.
If this game were a week ago, maybe the Raiders would be the team getting the hype. Remember when Vegas hung 40 points on Kansas City and gave the Chiefs their first loss of 2020? That’s ancient history now in bettors’ minds, and Tampa is the hot team instead.
The favorite often gets backing anyway in a big national TV game, and there’s a good chance this game jumps to -3 or -3.5 and costs me a key number or more.
The Raiders beat the Chiefs by connecting on a litany of deep passes, and that covered up for their poor rushing attack and complete lack of defense. But the Bucs defense won’t give up 40 to this one-sided attack. I like Tampa to keep the good times rolling, and I’m grabbing the points while this is under three.