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Freedman’s NFL Wild Card Prop Betting Picks: Back Carson Wentz To Throw for the Most Yards?


Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Carson Wentz

I love the NFL playoffs because sportsbooks increase the number and types of props they post, and a lot of them offer value.

While I always bet player props — check out my favorites for Wild Card Weekend as well as the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool — in the postseason I especially am drawn to the props for most passing, rushing and receiving yardage in each round.

Sean Koerner has a great article breaking down his projected odds for all the yardage leader props, and I’ve certainly relied on it while making my bets.

This season, I’m 317-206-10 (+63.1) on NFL player props.

Here are the three yardage leader props I have for Wild Card Weekend.

Find yardage leader props at FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Eagles QB Carson Wentz: Most Passing Yards +700

It’s easy to overlook Wentz because of all the injuries to his pass-catching options.

No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out, as is No. 2 wide receiver DeSean Jackson (abdomen, IR). No. 3 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) has been out since Week 14 and will once again be inactive this weekend.

No. 1 tight end Zach Ertz (ribs, back) is reportedly dealing with a lacerated kidney. He missed Week 17 and is questionable at best. Even if he plays, he’ll be operating at far less than full capacity.

And No. 1 pass-catching back Darren Sproles (hip, IR) is out.

But Wentz has been without his top wide receivers for almost all of the past month, and over the past four games, he’s averaged 299.8 yards passing.

Playing at home, Wentz is on the positive side of his passing splits (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

  • Home (eight games): 39.8 attempts, 264.3 yards
  • Away (eight games): 36.1 attempts, 240.6 yards

The Seahawks have allowed 275.4 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks this year — the league’s sixth-highest average.

Given Wentz’s recent form and matchup, I’d bet him down to +550.

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