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Koerner: My Projected Odds & Picks for NFL Playoff Yardage Leader Props

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Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Thomas

I’m going all in on NFL playoff prop betting — you can read my guide to Saturday’s Wild Card games here — and some of the best values can be found in the yardage leader markets.

I simulated each round 10,000 times to calculate the true odds for both the Wild Card Weekend and the full NFL playoff markets. And after comparing my projections to various sportsbooks, I’ve made four picks: On the rushing leader for Wild Card Weekend as well as the passing, rushing and receiving leaders for the full playoff run.

Now let’s dig into both sets of my projections and picks.


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Wild Card Passing, Rushing & Receiving Leader Props

Below you’ll find my projected chances of each player finishing Wild Card Weekend as the leader of their respective categories, as well as a comparison of my true odds to the odds available at various books as of Friday.

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