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NFL Player Props: Expert Projections Like Fading Justin Watson in Week 14

NFL Player Props: Expert Projections Like Fading Justin Watson in Week 14 article feature image
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Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Watson.

In looking for NFL Week 14 player props, Sean Koerner’s Action Labs projections show edges on players you might not have been expecting to bet on Sunday.

You didn’t wake up on Sunday morning thinking, “You know what, Austin Hooper has been really reliable in the props market and I can’t wait to bet him again.” But here we are.

Check out just two of the many edges in the Week 14 player props market on Sunday.

Austin Hooper
Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)

Austin Hooper’s snap count went down to 49% last week, but Action Labs isn’t concerned. He’s projected for 28.7 receiving yards, which is a big value on his 20.5 total.

Hooper has been at 61% or higher in three of the last five weeks. The two under were against the Packers, when the Titans hammered the ground game, and Eagles, when Tennessee was blown out.

The most important thing: Hooper has hit this over in each of his last five games.

Fellow tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo saw 58% of snaps last week, which was a season high, but I’m putting that down to the nature of Tennessee’s loss in Philadelphia. Ironically, Okonkwo has also gone over this number in each of his last five games, as well.

Justin Watson
Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)

We bet a Watson over a couple weeks ago when the Chiefs were down multiple receivers. Now, we’re fading him.

Watson is projected for 14.7 receiving yards against the Broncos, which presents a big edge against the Broncos pass defense.

We bet Watson against the Rams, when his line was similar to this and he went over with two catches for 26 yards. Since then, there’s been reason to believe his role will be decreased.

Watson played 88% and 84% of snaps in Weeks 11 and 12, respectively, but that number went down to 62% last week against the Bengals. JuJu Smith-Schuster was back, and his role will continue to increase this week. Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman are still out, but the rest of the Chiefs’ receiving corps are healthy.

Two catches would get Watson this over, but that’s also unlikely to come against an impressive Denver defense. The Broncos defense ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA metric. While Denver won’t score much, there’s a chance it contains the Kansas City passing attack.

Also, the Broncos rank 17th against the run, which means the Chiefs could lean on Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco this week more than usual.

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