We have you covered with a total of six NFL player prop picks for the Week 13 Thanksgiving slate.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for every player in Lions vs Packers, Chiefs vs Cowboys and Bengals vs Ravens.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for NFL Thanksgiving on November 27.
NFL Player Props — Thanksgiving
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Packers vs Lions
David Montgomery Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Kyle Murray
Jahmyr Gibbs continues to separate himself from David Montgomery on the list of priorities for touches on the Lions; Montgomery has just 11 carries over the last two games.
The Packers are also a brutal matchup — they have allowed just 3.89 yards per carry and prevent explosive plays on the ground (fifth-lowest explosive run% allowed this season).
The Lions have also turned to a pass-heavy approach since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties, so I am expecting decreased volume and efficiency for Montgomery.
Pick: David Montgomery Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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Packers vs Lions
Jordan Love Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)
This line is a bit too high given the spot.
Jordan Love gets a matchup against the Lions, who have historically been a pass-funnel defense.
Love hasn't looked great for a large part of this season, but the talent is there, and this game has a real chance of being a shootout.
We've seen games in Detroit turn into massive offensive outputs many times over the years, including last week with the Giants.
I have Love projected for 20+ yards over this number and I am going to hit the ladder as well.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)
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Chiefs vs Cowboys
George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
By Grant Neiffer
George Pickens has been one of the best receivers in the NFL, and these odds are a bit too high.
Pickens has continued to have great volume even with CeeDee Lamb back in the offense, and he's been a TD beast this season, with eight in 11 games.
Pickens is near the league lead for red-zone targets and can score from anywhere on the field. The total in this game is massive, and I have the true odds here around +130.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
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Chiefs vs Cowboys
Isiah Pacheco Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Isiach Pacheco makes his return today, which means we'll get some type of shared backfield with Kareem Hunt.
The market is kind of shrugging at the exact split, pricing them nearly identically, but I'm expecting Hunt to maintain a larger share of the rushing work.
Pacheco is returning from an MCL sprain in his right knee. It's the same leg he broke last season. Pacheco might wrestle away the majority of the carries from Hunt at some point, but his first game coming off a month-long absence doesn't seem like the spot.
The Cowboys have been tremendous against the run since trading for Quinnen Williams. They've played some struggling offensive lines — Las Vegas and Philadelphia — but the Chiefs are expected to be without Trey Smith.
A backup guard going up against Williams and Kenny Clark could be a big problem.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
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Bengals vs Ravens
Mark Andrews 40+ Receiving Yards (-100)
By Grant Neiffer
Mark Andrews has had an up-and-down season for the Ravens, but he should be in for a big game.
The total in this game is high (51.5), and we have a good chance of seeing a massive shootout. The matchup is the best in the league by a massive margin.
The Bengals have allowed 13 TDs to TEs this season, with the next-closest team allowing seven. Over 30% of targets on teams facing the Bengals have been to TEs, which is by far the highest mark in the league.
The Bengals have allowed 160+ more yards to TEs than any other team in the league.
I have Andrews projected for nearly 50 yards, and I'm hitting his ladder all the way up to 100+.
Pick: Mark Andrews 40+ Receiving Yards (-100)
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Bengals vs Ravens
Mike Gesicki Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
By Charlie Wright
Mike Gesicki returned in Week 12 against the Patriots after a lengthy injury absence and ran 64.1% of the routes. He came into the week at 37.9% for the season.
Not only did Gesicki run more routes than usual, he also lapped the rest of Cincinnati's tight ends. Gesicki's 25 routes were nearly as many as Tanner Hudson, Drew Sample and Noah Fant combined (28).
Now that we can trust Gesicki is back at TE1 in the offense, we get to the big key. Tee Higgins has already been ruled out with a concussion.
In five games without Higgins last season, Gesicki averaged 5.2 catches and 62.4 yards on 7.2 targets. He led the team in targets per route run and yards per route run (minimum 50 routes), narrowly beating Ja'Marr Chase in both metrics.
The Bengals are touchdown 'dogs on Thursday, so per usual, we should get plenty of passing volume.
Oh, and they're getting Joe Burrow back. Maybe I should've led with that.
Pick: Mike Gesicki Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
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