We have you covered with a total of seven NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 12.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Steelers vs Bears, Vikings vs Packers among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for later in the day for Eagles vs Cowboys and Falcons vs Saints. We also have bets for Bengals vs Patriots, Jets vs Ravens, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 12 of the NFL season on November 23.
NFL Player Props Week 12
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Patriots vs. Bengals
Chase Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)
With Samaje Perine reportedly doubtful this week as he recovers from a high ankle sprain, it's all systems go for Chase Brown again.
Since Perine went down in Week 9, Brown has regained the massive role he had to close last season. Brown posted a season-high 96% snap share in Week 9, and then came out of the bye and played 82% of the snaps last week. He's piled up 14 catches on 22 targets in those two games.
Brown actually leads the team in target share in this two-game stretch. That probably won't continue, but Cincinnati will be without Ja'Marr Chase today. Chase is averaging 11.5 targets per game this season, so his absence is obviously a huge deal.
The Patriots are a premier matchup for pass-catching running backs. They have allowed the most receptions on the 3rd-most targets per game to the position.
They're also massive favorites, which should lead to more passing volume for the Bengals.
Pick: Chase Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)
Vikings vs. Packers
Jordan Addison Anytime TD (+400)
I have no idea why these odds are this high, but I'm not going to argue.
The matchup is bad, but Jordan Addison has been a TD machine throughout his career.
He has scored 23 TDs in 39 games and has been getting good volume from J.J. McCarthy, with totals of seven and 10 targets in the last two games.
Despite not playing the first three games of the season, Addison is near the lead for the team in red-zone targets this season with 10.
I have the true odds here around +200.
Pick: Jordan Addison Anytime TD (+400)
Steelers vs. Bears
Caleb Williams Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
There are 215.5s out there, but they are juiced up, and I have Caleb Williams projected much higher, so I'm fine jumping in here at 218.5.
Weather does not look to be a concern in Chicago this week, and the Bears should find much more success through the air than on the ground against this Steelers team.
The Steelers have allowed the most passing yards per game in the league this season (281.5), and Williams has gone over this number in four of his last six games.
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Jets vs. Ravens
Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+155)
By Grant Neiffer
Andrews has looked great since Lamar Jackson has come back into the lineup, and he has a massive five TDs in the last four full games that Lamar has played.
The Jets have been one of the worst pass defenses in the league this season and have been particularly bad against opposing TEs, allowing the 2nd-most TDs to the position (7).
The blowout is a concern here, but these odds are still a bit too high given the matchup.
I have the true odds around +120, making this a great bet.
Pick: Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+155)
Seahawks vs. Titans
Sam Darnold Under 28.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
By Charlie Wright
Seattle is tied for the 5th-lowest neutral pass rate this season (54.7%). When the Seahawks are leading by at least a touchdown, that number falls to 40.1%, which is the 3rd-lowest in the league.
The Jets and Saints both have passing rates under 20% in those situations, but the sample sizes are tiny.
Unsurprisingly, the Jets have had a lead of at least seven points for just 18 snaps. The Saints have been up a touchdown for only 28 snaps.
Seattle, on the other hand, has been ahead by at least a touchdown for a league-leading 262 snaps.
That's a healthy sample of Seahawks leaning hard into the run when they get a lead, which plays into this Sam Darnold prop. They're favored by 13.5 points in this spot.
It's hard to see the Titans pushing them here.
Pick: Sam Darnold Under 28.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Jake Ferguson Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
Jake Ferguson was the clear No. 2 option to open the season, posting a 26% target per route run (TPRR) rate through Week 2. He had just two fewer receptions than CeeDee Lamb.
When Lamb went down, Ferguson had an even bigger role. His TPRR rate jumped to 31%, and he turned those opportunities into a solid 1.92 yards per route run.
In four games with Lamb back, he and George Pickens have dominated opportunities, with Ferguson receding into the No. 3 role.
Ferguson's TPRR rate has fallen to 16%, and he's posted a measly 0.78 yards per route run since Lamb returned.
The Eagles have been extremely tough on tight ends. They have allowed the 3rd-fewest receptions, 2nd-fewest yards, and 7th-fewest targets per game to the position.
Pick: Jake Ferguson Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Falcons vs. Saints
KhaDarel Hodge Anytime TD (+1200)
By Derek Carty
THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.19 touchdowns for KhaDarel Hodge in this game.
The oddsmakers' implied projection is 0.04 touchdowns, so I believe there is some value here.
If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 15% of the time, resulting in a 190% ROI with expected value of $190.32 (based on a $100 wager).
This play is good down to at least +653.
