NFL Playoff Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expert Betting 49ers-Packers Total, Deebo Samuel Under On Saturday
Getty Images. Pictured: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, Bengals RB Joe Mixon
NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals the biggest edges for Saturday’s NFL Divisional Round playoff games based on his power ratings (which help power our NFL PRO Projections). He has a 533-422-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
Deebo Samuel Under 4.5 Receptions
8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Since Week 10, the 49ers have been giving Samuel five or more rush attempts per game. He’s topped 5+ receptions in only two of nine games over that span. I expect them to continue giving him direct carries — at the expense of his receptions — for Saturday night’s matchup.
FanDuel is offering this under at -104 odds as of writing, but I’m projecting the “fair odds” closer to -160.
Bet to: -130
49ers-Packers Under 47.5
8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Despite there being elite offensive playmakers on both sides, I’m expecting this to be a slow-paced affair. These teams play at a plodding pace, with the 49ers ranking 29th and Packers ranking 32nd in pace of play.
The Packers will welcome back Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith, who will be massive boosts for their defense. The 49ers will likely lean on their run game in order to exploit the Packers’ run funnel defense — Green Bay ranks 28th against the run compared to 15th agains the pass, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA — and attempt to keep the Packers offense on the sideline.
Meanwhile, it looks like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa will be able to suit up for San Francisco, which was the news I was waiting for before locking in the under.
I’m projecting this closer to 46.
Bet to: 47.5
Joe Mixon Over 19.5 Rec Yards
4:30 p.m. ET kickoff
The Bengals limited Mixon’s receiving usage for much of the season, likely to keep him fresh for a potential playoff run. He topped a 60% routes run rate only twice between Weeks 1-15, but has topped it in each of the past three games, cashing in on the increased usage with receiving lines of 70, 40 and 28.
I’m projecting Mixon for closer to 26.5 yards against the Titans (see more of Koerner’s projections in our Action Labs props tool).
Bet to: 21.5
Bengals +3.5 at Titans
4:30 p.m. ET kickoff
The Bengals are trending up at the right time.
Excluding the Week 18 loss in which they benched their starters, the Bengals have won four straight games against the Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs and Raiders. And over this win streak, they became increasingly pass heavy:
- Weeks 1-14: 57% pass rate (21st)
- Week 15-Wild Card (excluding Week 18): 63% pass rate (seventh)
As you can see, the Bengals ran a fairly run-heavy offense for the first 14 weeks. However, they’ve leaned on Joe Burrow much more of late, and he’s played like the No. 1 QB in pretty much every key metric over their four-win streak.
Joe Burrow Weeks 15-19 (34 Qualified QBs)
- Expected Points Added Per Play (EPA/play): First
- Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANY/A): First
- QB Rating: First
I love the fact we get a red-hot Burrow and the Bengals at a key number of +3.5 against an overrated 1-seed in the Titans. I say overrated because the winner of Bills-Chiefs would likely be 3-point road favorites over the Titans, who were extremely fortunate to land the AFC’s No. 1 seed despite missing key players like Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for multiple games. However, they benefited from going 6-2 in one-score games and performed closer to an 11-6 team in my expected wins model.
I also like that, even if the Bengals go down by seven or more points, they’re more than capable to pass their way back into the game. However, if the Titans were to fall behind early, their offense isn’t designed to thrive in a trailing game script.
I’m projecting this closer to Titans -2.5 and locked in the Bengals at +3.5 once it was confirmed that DE Trey Hendrickson — who I project as worth 0-0.5 points to the spread for them — will be active.
Bet to: +3.5