NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions For 49ers vs. Packers: How Experts Are Betting Spread, Total On Saturday Night

When the 49ers and Packers met in Week 3, Aaron Rodgers and Co. covered as 3.5-point underdogs in their 30-28 win on the road. Now Green Bay will play host to San Francisco as a 5.5-point favorite in Saturday night's Divisional Round showdown after opening the 2022 NFL playoffs with a bye week.

So where's the betting value on this matchup? We have consensus among our experts about which side of the spread and over/under to target, plus a prop pick from our Director of Predictive Analytics.

49ers vs. Packers Picks

49ers Spread

written by Brandon Anderson

This was the matchup I wanted for the 49ers, but I had to wait for injury updates to lock them in.

It looked bad early on with news that Jimmy Garoppolo was a question mark with thumb and shoulder injuries, but he's expected to play. Fred Warner wasn't on the final injury report, either. And Nick Bosa has cleared concussion protocols.

That's about the best injury report we could hope for as 49ers backers.

Remember when I recommended betting on the 49ers to win the NFC at +2500 odds as well as the Super Bowl at +5000 odds heading into Week 18? It was because I loved how they matched up against their likely playoff opponents  —  specifically the Packers.

And it's all about the run game and playoff football.

Green Bay’s defense ranked 22nd in Football Outsiders' DVOA, including 28th against the run. That's a bottom-five unit that's been a serious problem all season, but will be a massive one against a creative, run-centric offense like San Francisco.

The 49ers feature the best tight end in the world in George Kittle as well as the league's finest offensive lineman in Trent Williams. Each has a case as the most valuable non-QB in the NFL. The rest of the O-line is terrific, too, as is do-everything fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The Niners win in the trenches, and they win with Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Elijah Mitchell has been terrific as a one-cut rookie runner while Deebo Samuel is a dynamic weapon out of the backfield.

The 49ers are built for playoff football — they gash opposing defenses on the ground and they’re built to win in the trenches and play in the cold.

Sometimes, the best defense against Aaron Rodgers is simply keeping him on the sidelines. The Niners chew up clock and go on long, sustained drives. Green Bay ranked 24th in DVOA defensively on first down this season and 26th on second down. San Francisco's offense ranked first on first and early downs. That is a ginormous problem for the Packers.

Kittle could also be a major issue. Green Bay ranks 28th in DVOA versus opposing tight ends, so he could have a monster game.

This San Francisco offense is the exact wrong matchup for a shaky Packers defense that’s gotten worse, not better, late in the season. But of course, the Packers aren’t here because of defense — Green Bay will score, and Rodgers could have a big game throwing to Davante Adams.

San Francisco's weak spot is its secondary, with key injuries and a lack of depth all season, and ranks second-to-last against opposing WR1s with 88 yards per game allowed. But it's worth noting the 49ers ranked inside the top four of defensive DVOA over the final eight weeks of the regular season, including first against the run and a respectable 10th against the pass.

The Niners can hold their own defensively.

They finished top-seven in DVOA on offense and defense. And while the Packers offense is definitely better — and while Rodgers is far more reliable than Garoppolo — the 49ers offense is more versatile and their defense can do things, too. They certainly did their job against the Cowboys and Rams with the season on the line the past two weeks. They can pass the ball, too — they have the NFL's second-best passing attack over the last eight weeks, right behind the Packers.

The truth is that the advanced metrics suggest these teams are about equal. Heck, San Francisco actually ranks higher than Green Bay in season-long DVOA. The Packers defense drags down their ranking, and so does their worst-in-the-league special teams.

The 49ers are the more balanced team and they’re playing better football late in the season. Plus since 2003, 1-seed favorites of 10 or fewer points are just 8-22-1 (27%) against the spread (ATS) in the Divisional Round, per our Action Labs data.

Under

written by Stuckey

This matchup features two teams that rank bottom-five in almost every pace category. This game won't be played at lightning speed.

The Packers' run defense issues are well documented. They ranked 29th in both Expected Points Added (EPA) per Rush and Rush Success Rate on early downs during the season. However, part of that was driven by scheme. I don't think their run defense is as bad as it has been in years past, primarily due to a significant improvement in tackling.

The defense as a whole should also receive a major boost with the return of a pair of Pro Bowlers who missed the majority of the season in Jaire Alexander and Za'Darius Smith.

You can expect the 49ers to come out and run, run, run, and run some more. Their game plan might resemble what we saw when these two clubs met in the 2019 season's NFC Championship Game. San Francisco won that 37-20 despite Jimmy Garoppolo finishing only 6-of-8 for 77 yards. Green Bay's run defense simply had no answers for a San Francisco backfield that ran it 38 times for 286 yards on a gaudy average north of 7.5 yards per carry.

Not only is that the 49ers' identity, but questions linger about Jimmy G's health. He now has a shoulder injury to go along with a thumb injury, both of which could get worse in the freezing cold temperatures at Lambeau Field. I'm sure the Packers will load the box and middle of the field, daring him to beat them by throwing to the sidelines.

When these teams met earlier this season in San Francisco, the Packers held on for a 30-28 victory. The total in that game closed at 50.5 and went over thanks to a 27-point outburst in the fourth quarter.

What has changed since then? Well, the 49ers offense is much better than what the Packers saw that day. Elijah Mitchell, who ranks fourth in the league in yards after carry among qualified backs, didn't play that day. Deebo Samuel has also been unleashed in the running game of late.

The 49ers defense is playing at a much higher level as well.

The secondary was in shambles for the first meeting due to injuries and the defensive line has played at an elite level in the second-half of the season after some schematic changes and under-rated, under-the-radar acquisitions. The defensive line is dominating the line of scrimmage every week and the secondary is arguably in the best shape it has been all year.

It's still worth noting that the Packers defense held the 49ers to 67 yards on 21 carries in that first meeting. The Green Bay offense has also started slow all year, ranking 25th in average points per first quarter. Therefore, a first-half under might be also worth exploring.

Things could get dicey if Aaron Rodgers goes into comeback mode against a 49ers secondary that's trending up but still has holes. And Jimmy G trying to bring the 49ers back with his arm wouldn't be doing under backers any favors — whether he's throwing it to his receivers or Packers linebackers. That's why I personally only like this at 48 or better.

Deebo Samuel Under 4.5 Receptions

written by Sean Koerner

Since Week 10, the 49ers have been giving Samuel five or more rush attempts per game. He’s topped 5+ receptions in only two of nine games over that span. I expect them to continue giving him direct carries — at the expense of his receptions — for Saturday night's matchup.

FanDuel is offering this under at -104 odds as of writing, but I'm projecting the "fair odds" closer to -160 and would bet this to -130.

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