NFL Playoff Picture: Upsets Shift Our Model’s Postseason Projections for Every Team

NFL Playoff Picture: Upsets Shift Our Model’s Postseason Projections for Every Team article feature image
Credit:

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pete Carroll, Jason Myers

  • Upsets were abound in Week 10, shifting the projected 2019 NFL playoff picture substantially.
  • Let's reset the standings and rank all 32 teams' chances of making the postseason according to our model.

The AFC playoff race just got a lot more interesting.

With the Baltimore Ravens’ blowout win over Cincinnati and the Kansas City Chiefs’ loss to Tennessee, our Bet Labs model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — now gives Baltimore a 18.89% chance of landing the top seed, a 64% chance of securing a first-round bye and a 10.78% chance to win the Super Bowl (all second only to New England in the AFC).

Over in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers leapfrogged New Orleans to overtake the projected 2-seed after the Saints were upset by Atlanta.

Oh, and the Miami Dolphins continue to tank their own tank job, falling from a 72.34% chance to land the No. 1 overall draft pick heading into Week 9 to a 13.10% chance thanks to back-to-back wins.

So how does our model project every team’s postseason chances coming out of Week 10? We’ll rank the odds for all 32 and much more below, but before we dig in, let’s take a quick look at the current playoff standings.

Note: You can sift through every team’s chances to secure specific playoff seeding and much more in the table at the very end of this story.


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Current NFL Playoff Picture & Standings

AFC Playoff Picture & Standings

  1. New England Patriots (8-1)
  2. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
  3. Houston Texans (6-3)
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
  5. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)

NFC Playoff Picture & Standings

  1. San Francisco 49ers (8-1)
  2. Green Bay Packers (8-2)
  3. New Orleans Saints (7-2)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (5-4)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)
  6. Minnesota Vikings (7-3)

NFL Playoff Rankings & Projections

1. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.98%
  • Chance to win division: 99.19%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 28.06%

The Patriots will return from a bye still in position for the projected 1-seed in the AFC and the more favorable postseason projections across our model.

2. Baltimore Ravens

  • Chance to make playoffs: 97.27%
  • Chance to win division: 90.24%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 10.78%

The Ravens continue to roll. Their blowout win over the Bengals combined with the Chiefs’ loss to the Titans gives Baltimore a boost across the board, most notably rising to the fourth-best chances to win the Super Bowl.

3. San Francisco 49ers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 95.00%
  • Chance to win division: 66.78%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 14.82%

San Francisco is undefeated no more. But even with their first loss (delivered by the Seahawks), the Niners still have the second-best chance to win it all.

4. Green Bay Packers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 92.94%
  • Chance to win division: 72.43%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 7.67%

With Green Bay’s win over Carolina and New Orleans’ loss to Atlanta, the Packers overtake the NFC’s projected 2-seed, boosting their chances of a top-two seed from 27.45% to 47.44%.

5. New Orleans Saints

  • Chance to make playoffs: 92.44%
  • Chance to win division: 87.91%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 14.02%

The Saints were stunned by the Falcons at home, losing 26-9 in the biggest shocker of Week 10. They’re now in position for the projected 3-seed.

6. Houston Texans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 85.12%
  • Chance to win division: 68.22%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.38%

Even on a bye week, the Texans managed to create more separation between them and the rest of the AFC South thanks to the Colts’ loss to the Dolphins.

7. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make playoffs: 82.20%
  • Chance to win division: 77.90%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.89%

The Chiefs suffered their second loss in three weeks, falling to 6-4. Now they head to Mexico City for a Monday Night Football showdown against the Chargers before a Week 12 bye.

8. Minnesota Vikings

  • Chance to make playoffs: 79.93%
  • Chance to win division: 26.68%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.67%

The Vikings wrapped a Sunday full of upsets with a win over the Cowboys in primetime, but at 7-3, they still sit behind the 8-2 Packers in the NFC North.

9. Seattle Seahawks

  • Chance to make playoffs: 79.03%
  • Chance to win division: 30.01%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.02%

The Seahawks spoiled the 49ers’ perfect record, igniting a divisional rivalry that ruled the NFL earlier this decade. And the margin narrows between an 8-2 Seattle team and 8-1 San Francisco squad.

10. Buffalo Bills

  • Chance to make playoffs: 60.82%
  • Chance to win division: 0.81%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.44%

Even with the Bills’ loss to the Browns, they remain the projected 5-seed, though the AFC wild-card race is growing increasingly crowded.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 54.95%
  • Chance to win division: 8.15%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.71%

The Steelers made it four straight wins with their 17-12 upset of the Rams, launching themselves into position for the conference’s projected 6-seed and improving their chances to make the postseason from 37.05% to 53.84% in just one week.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Chance to make playoffs: 53.86%
  • Chance to win division: 48.74%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.13%

Thanks to the Vikings’ win over the Cowboys, the Eagles return from a bye tied for the top position in the NFC East with the Cowboys.

13. Dallas Cowboys

  • Chance to make playoffs: 53.73%
  • Chance to win division: 51.21%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.50%

Speaking of the Cowboys’ Sunday Night Football loss, they drop to a 51.21% chance to win the division, down from 62.12% just a week ago.

14. Indianapolis Colts

  • Chance to make playoffs: 38.63%
  • Chance to win division: 23.54%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.40%

With Brian Hoyer under center, the Colts lost to the Dolphins as double-digit favorites, falling further back in the race for the AFC South.

15. Oakland Raiders

  • Chance to make playoffs: 30.16%
  • Chance to win division: 13.57%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.08%

The Raiders continue to gain ground in the AFC wild-card race, more than doubling their payoff chances week-over-week from 14.45% to 30.16% with last week’s victory over the Chargers.

16. Los Angeles Rams

  • Chance to make playoffs: 28.60%
  • Chance to win division: 3.21%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.50%

The Rams’ downturn continues. Just a year removed from an NFC title, Sean McVay’s squad still sits third in the NFC West. Their loss in Pittsburgh drops them to 5-4.

17. Carolina Panthers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 18.53%
  • Chance to win division: 11.64%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.30%

Kyle Allen threw for a career-high 307 yards against the Packers, though the Panthers still lost at Lambeau and fall to 5-4 on the season.

18. Tennessee Titans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 17.60%
  • Chance to win division: 6.67%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.08%

The Titans pulled off an impressive comeback win over the Chiefs and are now 3-1 in Ryan Tannehill’s starts. Tennessee’s playoff chances are up from last week (9.40%) as a result.

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry

19. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 11.45%
  • Chance to win division: 7.81%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.33%

The Chargers’ loss in Oakland bumps them back to 4-6 and third place in the AFC West, slimming their postseason chances in the process.

20. Cleveland Browns

  • Chance to make playoffs: 11.40%
  • Chance to win division: 1.61%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.07%

The Browns snapped their four-loss streak with a 19-16 win over the Bills. The win nearly doubled Cleveland’s playoff chances, but those chances are still slim.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Chance to make playoffs: 8.70%
  • Chance to win division: 1.57%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.04%

With Tennessee’s big win, the Jaguars will return from a bye in last place in the AFC South, but welcome Nick Foles back as the starter.

22. Chicago Bears

  • Chance to make playoffs: 4.18%
  • Chance to win division: 0.83%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.10%

The Bears eked out a divisional win over the Lions to double their playoff chances, but even worse than the Browns, those are closer to nonexistent.

23. Denver Broncos

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.51%
  • Chance to win division: 0.72%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Broncos return from a bye with some interesting developments in the AFC West, but none that help their postseason chances, which are inching closer to zero.

24. Detroit Lions

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.02%
  • Chance to win division: 0.06%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

Detroit’s offense struggled with Matthew Stafford out and Jeff Driskel under center, and as of writing, Stafford’s status for Week 11 is still unclear.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.63%
  • Chance to win division: 0.43%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

The Buccaneers and Cardinals had no issue combining to hit the over in the highest total game of Week 10 (52), but otherwise, there isn’t much to report from Tampa Bay.

26. New York Jets

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.19%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Jets squeaked out a win over the Giants at the risk of their chances of landing a top-five pick in the 2020 draft, which fell from 63.58% to 44.64%.

27. Atlanta Falcons

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.05%
  • Chance to win division: 0.02%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Falcons pulled off what might go down as the most shocking upset of the season, thumping the Saints 26-9 in the Superdome. The win might not have meant much, but 2-7 beats 1-8.

28. New York Giants

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.04%
  • Chance to win division: 0.04%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

A high-scoring, one-score loss means a lot less when it’s to the Jets. The Giants are now losers of six straight; the last team they beat was the Redskins.

29. Miami Dolphins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.02%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Dolphins are winners of two straight — a sentence no one expected to read in 2019. But it’s come at a cost: Their chances to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft have fallen from 72.34% to 13.10% as a result.

T-30. Arizona Cardinals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.01%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

On the surface, 3-6-1 doesn’t look so bad for a team with low preseason expectations, but the Cardinals’ final stretch won’t be easy. They travel to San Francisco this week then end the season with back-to-back road games against the Seahawks and Rams.

T-30. Washington Redskins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.01%
  • Chance to win division: 0.01%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Redskins will officially start rookie Dwayne Haskins for the rest of the season. They even host the Jets as small favorites this Sunday.

32. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

Things aren’t looking any better in Cincinnati with Ryan Finley under center. The rookie threw one touchdown, one interception and 167 yards on 16-of-30 passing in the Bengals’ 49-13 loss to the Ravens, falling to 0-9.


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