NFL Playoff Betting Strategy: Target Sunday’s Conference Championship Game Second-Half Lines
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs
- The 2020 NFL conference championship matchups are set.
- Using Bet Labs, we explain how savvy bettors can take advantage of second-half lines in the NFL playoffs.
For anybody unfamiliar with the concept of second-half (2H) betting, it is simple: Whenever a game goes to halftime, oddsmakers will post lines for the second half of the game. This solely reflects the points scored in the second half, not the final score.
NFL bettors looking to profit on these additional wagering opportunities can follow a couple effective strategies from the regular season:
- Bet large second-half underdogs (7 or more points): 161-120-29 (57.3%) against the spread (ATS)
- Bet teams that are winning big at halftime (20 or more points): 191-149-8 (56.2%) ATS
Combined, these two regular season approaches have gone 352-269-37 (56.7%) ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, these tactics aren’t as effective in the postseason: 18-27 (40.0%) ATS.
NFL Playoff Second-Half Betting Strategy
The best strategy for wagering on 2H playoff lines is to bet favorites. Since 2005, the chalk has gone 80-66-6 (54.8%) ATS in the second half according to Bet Labs.
The larger the favorite, the more profitable it has been to bet on it.
Betting 2H favorites works because motivation is high in postseason games and teams that are favored in the second half are often trailing or underperforming pregame expectations. Plus, teams that reach the playoffs tend to be good at making in-game adjustments.
During halftime this weekend, check the second-half spread before running to the bathroom or grabbing another beverage and place a wager on the chalk.
Not only will it make the final two quarters more entertaining, but history suggests it will build your bankroll as well.