Our football staff has locked in picks for both of Sunday's playoff games for our NFL predictions for the Conference Championships on January 25.
First, we'll target Patriots vs. Broncos in the AFC Championship Game, followed by our best bets for Rams vs. Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for Sunday's Conference Championship Games.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Conference Round Sunday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots vs Broncos Spread Prediction
By Brit Devine
This is far too big of a move against what I would make the line for this game if Bo Nix were starting for the Broncos.
I would make the spread this game Broncos -1.5 if Nix were playing — which implies that he is worth almost a touchdown to the line over backup Jarrett Stidham.
The last few times we have seen Stidham on an NFL field, he has looked pretty darn good. In the preseason, he went 30-for-38 for 376 yards with four TDs and zero interceptions.
To close out the regular season for the Broncos in 2023, he went 40-for-66 for 496 yards with two TDs and one interception in meaningless games with backups at the end of the season.
In 2022, he lit up one of the premier defenses in the league (49ers) for 365 yards with three TDs and two interceptions in an overtime loss.
Stidham can run a little as well to keep the same game plan the Broncos had last week, with Nix using his legs to move around and scramble when needed.
The Patriots are a good team, but this line is not giving the Broncos defense enough credit, and it is most certainly not giving Sean Payton and Stidham enough credit.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-120)
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Rams vs Seahawks Spread Prediction
By Bet Labs
The Rams are set to play in their third straight road game in the playoffs today.
Since division realignment in 2002, teams playing in their third consecutive road game in either the regular season or playoffs are 48-79 (37.8%) straight up (SU). When that team is listed as an underdog, they are 22-67 SU (24.7%). When that third road game is in the playoffs, those teams are 12-30 SU (28.6%), including 9-28 SU (24.3%) as an underdog.
It's also not an easy task to have to play on a road trip in Seattle. This season, those teams are 0-5 against the spread (ATS); they are 1-9 ATS over the last three seasons.
Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (-110)
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Patriots vs Broncos Spread Pick
By Stuckey
Let’s narrow the focus to early in the game.
Home underdogs of 4+ points in the postseason are 9-0 against the spread over the past 50 years. Home ‘dogs in a conference championship game are 4-1 against the spread in the first quarter and the first half over the past 25 years.
The Broncos won’t have Bo Nix. However, if you look at his whole body of work he is a league-average quarterback — and he's been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in the first quarter of games this season.
Among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks in the first quarter, Nix ranks 31st in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation. He basically tied with Joe Flacco for dead last. Nix is also 26th in adjusted EPA per play, 29th in success rate, and 31st in completion percentage over expectation.
So, how big could the drop-off really be in the first quarter compared to what Nix usually does?
Additionally, you have the element of surprise in the game script. The Patriots don't know what the heck to expect here. You're probably going to get some tricks, some exotic looks. The Broncos might even go heavier here.
I trust Broncos head coach Sean Payton to come up with some looks that the Patriots just don't really have on film, plus they don't know what to expect with Jarrett Stidham at QB.
I think the Denver defense is going to come out juiced early in the game, so I like the Broncos to keep this at least tied early. The Patriots might go a little bit more conservative out of the gate to avoid mistakes and see what Stidham's got.
Give me Denver to cover the first quarter spread at +0.5.
Pick: Broncos First Quarter +0.5 (-125)
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Rams vs Seahawks Total Prediction
By Bet Labs
System: We have a divisional game in the Conference Championship. History says to lean to the under.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
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