I'm targeting three sides and a total on Sunday of NFL Week 1 and have picks on for Giants vs Commanders, Jets vs Steelers, Falcons vs Buccaneers and Panthers vs Jaguars.
So, let's get right into my expert NFL picks and analysis for our first NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions, Week 1
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Giants vs. Commanders Prediction
Washington beat New York by only three (21-18) and five (27-22) in 2024. The Commanders also suffered a 28-27 loss to Pittsburgh in which their defense gave up three TDs to Russell Wilson, who is now the Giants' starting quarterback.
The Commanders’ offense has talent, but could stumble a bit out of the gate after failing to practice as a unit all offseason while dealing with Terry McLaurin’s contract dispute and injuries to Noah Brown (now healthy) and Sam Cosmi (IR-knee).
Washington is integrating a bunch of key new pieces into the offense, including at left tackle (Laremy Tunsil), right tackle (Andrew Wylie), No. 2 wide receiver (Deebo Samuel) and early-down running back (Jacory Croskey-Merritt).
The Giants defense is strong at every level with Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter on the defensive line, Bobby Okereke at linebacker, and free agent acquisitions Paulson Adebo and Javon Holland at corner and safety, respectively.
Washington’s offense could also be looking at some natural regression after posting historic third- and fourth-down conversion rates while Jayden Daniels was just 20th in Success Rate on early downs.
Per Action Labs, Divisional Dogs since 2005 are 69-44-2 (61.1%) in Week 1.
Week 1 divisional underdogs have historically been profitable.
Prediction: Giants +6.5; Bet to +6
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Tampa Bay enters Week 1 short-handed on offense with veteran studs such as LT Tristan Wirfs (knee) and WR Chris Godwin (ankle) sidelined, second-year WR Jalen McMillan (neck) on IR, and OC Liam Coen gone after sparking a 9.0-point jump in scoring last season.
This will be the Buccaneers’ third OC in three years.
Atlanta’s defense, meanwhile, is in a buy-low spot after adding significant talent over the offseason, including drafting pass rushers James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, starting safety Xavier Watts in Round 3, and starting nickel Billy Bowman Jr. in Round 4, as well as adding veteran pass rusher Leonard Floyd in free agency.
The Buccaneers lost twice to Atlanta in a four-week span last year, giving up 67 points and 944 total yards in the process. While Atlanta added youth on defense, Tampa Bay's defense is aging.
Lavonte David is 35, Vita Vea (questionable-foot) is 30 and offseason acquisition, Haason Redick turns 31 this month and is coming off a season in which he recorded only one sack in 10 games last season. Safety Christian Izien (oblique) is also out.
Per Action Labs, divisional home underdogs since 2005 are 27-15 (64.3%) ATS in Week 1 and 66-38-3 (63.6%) ATS across the first three weeks of the season.
Prediction: Falcons +1.5; Bet to Pick'em
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Jaguars vs. Panthers Prediction
Bryce Young showed progress late last year, but it was largely tied to Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker — both now gone.
Thielen was traded, Coker landed on IR, which could have a major impact on Young’s efficiency given his numbers last season throwing to them versus everyone else:
- Young to Thielen/Coker: 74.0%, 10.2 YPA, 6.3% TD (91 attempts)
- Young to everyone else: 62.0%, 5.4 YPA, 3.4% TD (263 attempts)
Making matters worse, Carolina will be without LT Ikem Ekwonu (doubtful-Appendix). Ekwonu, who earned a 71.7 PFF grade in 2024, will be replaced by either Brady Christensen (63.6) or Yosh Nijman (57.9).
On the other side of the ball, new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen oversaw a 9.0-point offensive improvement in Tampa Bay last season and could have a similar effect on Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr, and company after adding No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter and 4.3 speedster Bhayshul Tuten, among others, to the offense.
Meanwhile, Carolina finished 2024 ranked dead last in defensive DVOA in 2024, per FTN, and he still has a lot of holes on the unit despite the return of Derrick Brown.
Young improved at home last season ATS, but according to Action Labs, his career road ATS record still sits at 4-9 (30.8%), and he’s failed to cover by 8.1 points per game in those spots.
Pick: Jagurs -3.5; Bet to -4
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Jets vs Steelers Prediction
Jets defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn brings pressure as much as anyone — his Detroit defense blitzed at the league’s second-highest rate (34.6%) in 2024, per Pro-Football-Reference.
That’s bad news for Aaron Rodgers, who struggled mightily when blitzed last year. Among 43 qualified QBs, Rodgers ranked second-worst in yards per attempt (5.5) against the blitz, with a 6.3 average depth of target and 2.30 time-to-throw — both fourth-lowest, per PFF.
On the other side of the ball, Justin Fields last season saw the total go over 37 in only two of his six starts. This season the bar has been set ominously low, with Fields and new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand stating they’d be happy taking eight-yard completions all day.
Even that may be a stretch against a Steelers defense that added Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay and Juan Thornhill to a unit already featuring 2023 No. 33 overall pick Joey Porter Jr. and DeShon Elliott in the secondary — not to mention studs like T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and Alex Highsmith up front.
Mike Tomlin-coached defenses have been money for road unders, going 58-31-1 (65.2%) since 2014, covering the total by 2.61 points per game for a 27% ROI, per Action Labs.
Pick: Under 38; Bet to Under 37
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