I'm targeting three NFL spreads on Sunday of Week 11, including picks for Buccaneers vs Bills, Bengals vs Steelers, and 49ers vs Cardinals.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the 11th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 11 Predictions & Spread Picks
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Buccaneers vs Bills
The Bucs pose a tough matchup for the Bills because the Bucs can stop the run, and the Bills offense struggles without a strong run game.
The Bucs rank No. 4 in defensive rushing DVOA and No. 1 in defensive Adjusted Line Yards (3.50).
The Bills are 4-0 with a +73 point differential in games in which James Cook has rushed for 100+ yards and 5+ yards per carry.
In games where Cook has fallen short of either 100 yards or 5.0 YPC, the Bills are 2-3 with a -27 point differential.
Tampa Bay is also fifth in blitz rate, and Josh Allen is 24th in PFF grade against the blitz (64.0).
Those struggles could be exacerbated by the absence of Dalton Kincaid (hamstring), who leads the Bills in receiving EPA versus the blitz (12.16).
According to our Action Labs data, the Bucs are 15-8 (65%) for a 26% ROI as a regular-season ‘dog with Baker Mayfield, covering by 4.4 points per game.
Pick: Buccaneers +5.5
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Bengals vs Steelers
The Bengals defense is an absolute wreck, ranking dead last in DVOA overall and versus the pass and run, respectively.
They already rank bottom-five in pressure rate and will be without All-Pro Trey Hendrickson (hip) and first-round pick Shemar Stewart (IR-knee) on the edge.
According to PFF, Aaron Rodgers is completing 39.0% of passes under pressure compared to 74.0% from a clean pocket.
The Steelers defense gave up 33 to Joe Flacco and company in Week 7, but has trended up recently thanks to some adjustments by Mike Tomlin.
In Week 9, the Steelers held the Colts to a season-low 20 points, Daniel Jones to a season-low 4.54 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and 63.9 Passer Rating, and Jonathan Taylor to a season-low 45 rushing yards.
In Week 10, they held the Chargers to 11 first downs and a season-low 314 total yards.
I expect the Bengals to come back down to earth after playing three straight home games.
Cincinnati averaged 37.7 points and 454.3 total yards in Flacco’s three home starts, but posted just 18 points and 268 total yards in his lone road start.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 11 favorites by -7 or less in a divisional matchup are 44-24-5 (65%) for a 24% ATS since 2005, covering by 3.4 points per game.
Pick: Steelers -5.5
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49ers vs Cardinals
Dortch goes from the Cardinals WR4 to WR2 with injuries to Marvin Harrison (out-appendix) and Zay Jones (IR-Achilles).
Despite Dortch’s small stature, he has scored twice from the red zone over the past four games, on a 12-yard pass from Jacoby Brissett in Week 6, and on a 4-yard run lined up in the wildcat last week.
Pick: Greg Dortch Anytime TD (+320)
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