Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
- For my Monday Night Football pick, check out our Packers vs Eagles preview.
Here are the NFL Week 11 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions
Panthers vs Falcons Spread Pick
This was my Lookahead pick in my Week 10 column, and I'm doubling down after Sunday played out almost exactly as expected. The Colts ran all over the Falcons as Jonathan Taylor exploded for 244 yards and three touchdowns while the Panthers struggled in a loss to the Saints.
It's ideal to bet on the Panthers when they are underdogs. They can do their thing — run the ball, stop the opposition's run game and shorten the game. It worked in their upset win over the Packers but worked against them in Sunday's loss.
Remember, the Panthers blew out the Falcons 30-0 in Week 3.
What happened in that game? Well, Carolina ran the ball 30 times, limited Atlanta's run game and the Falcons just beat themselves. The Panthers have a top-10 run offense and they're going up against a bottom-10 run defense (per DVOA); Carolina also has the special teams advantage here.
Over the last two decades, road underdogs between 3-to-7 points (not inclusive) are 56.4% against the spread (ATS) in division games, good for a 10% ROI on almost a 400-game sample size.
The Falcons are also returning home after a game — that went to overtime — in Berlin with no rest in between. Teams with no bye after an international game have tied or trailed in 16-of-18 fourth quarters. Carolina should be in it late with a chance to steal the game outright.
Picks: Panthers +3.5 (+4 if you can find it); partial bet on the Panthers Moneyline (+175; Fanatics)
Chiefs vs Broncos Over/Under Prediction
Both of these teams enter this game on extended rest.
The Chiefs had their bye week while the fraudulent Broncos played on Thursday Night Football, where they notched an uninspiring 10-7 win over the Raiders. Denver had just 220 yards and a 37% success rate while Bo Nix posted a dreadful -0.31 EPA/play. Don't be fooled by the Broncos' 8-2 record.
That said, the Broncos defense is tough and the reason they were able to beat the Raiders. Las Vegas was held to 188 yards, 3.2 yards per play and a 32% success rate. The absence of Patrick Surtain II shouldn't be a big factor against the Chiefs with no outside WR matchup of note.
Outside of the game against Dallas, Broncos games have averaged a total of 37.8 PPG this season. The Broncos were great against the Chiefs last year, holding them to 16 points in one game and shutting them out in a pointless Week 18 game. In the last four Chiefs-Broncos games, they average 32 PPG total.
The Broncos are the league’s best under team at 7-3 and the Chiefs aren't far behind at 6-3. Both are top five to 1st- and 2nd-half unders.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110; Fanatics)
Anderson's Early NFL Week 11 Bets
- Panthers +3.5
- Chiefs-Broncos Under 44.5
