NFL Predictions Week 18: Data-Driven Picks for Packers vs Bears, Cardinals vs Seahawks
Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields.
NFL Predictions Week 18: Data-Driven Picks for Packers vs Bears, Cardinals vs Seahawks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL Predictive Analytics betting staff is targeting for Sunday in NFL Week 18. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
By Nick Giffen
According to our NFL Luck Rankings, the Panthers are the unluckiest team in the NFL while the Buccaneers are the fourth-most lucky.
The two teams have a Luck Gap of 26.6%. That Luck Difference of 28 is enough to have some massive splits in the Panthers’ favor, but I’m taking it one step further and taking Carolina on the moneyline.
These teams squared off in Week 13. The Buccaneers were four-point home favorites then — they are once again four-point favorites, but in Carolina.
I expect people will point to the Bucs' 4-1 record — including and since that game — as to why the line should remain at four points, but it’s quite a flawed argument.
Tampa Bay won that game 21-18, but were the second-most lucky team that week. The Panthers actually outplayed the Buccaneers and should have won 22-14 by Expected Score. The Panthers had a 44.9% offensive success rate while the Buccaneers sat at a paltry 30.4%. That’s not a winning formula for Tampa Bay.
In addition, that game sparked a four-game winning streak for the Buccaneers, all of which ranked in the top-five luckiest results of each week.
Speaking of luck, not only are the Panthers a significantly unlucky team by our Luck Rankings, but there’s actually three metrics of luck, measured in different ways, that all point to Carolina as the massive unlucky team in this game.
First, of course is the Luck Rankings themselves.
Second is by schedule-adjusted Expected Score win percentage compared to traditional Pythagorean win percentage, which just uses raw point totals. By this metric, the Panthers should be a 26.2% win team compared to a 17.5% win team by Pythagorean Expectation, equating to Carolina being unlucky at 8.7%.
Tampa Bay, on the contrary, should be a 37.8% win team compared to 53.0% by Pythagorean Expectation, which makes them 15.2% lucky.
That difference of 23.9% between the two is the largest by that metric since Week 13.
Finally, the Panthers' Luck Team Total sits at +3.8, the highest of the week, while the Buccaneers are the second lowest at -4.4.
When these three metrics all align and the Luck Gap is above 20%, the unlucky team is 8-0 ATS since Week 13 and 8-0 straight up, with six of those wins by underdog teams!
Pick: Panthers ML (+190)
Utilize our DraftKings promo code to get the most out of your NFL Week 18 action.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
By Billy Ward
Sean Koerner has White projected for the second-most rushing yards on Sunday behind only D’Andre Swift, who he’s projecting for just one more yard. Despite that, DraftKings has White as the seventh-likeliest player to lead Sunday's slate in rushing yards.
That’s solid value at 11-to-1 odds as White takes on the league’s worst rushing defense in a must-win game. Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South with a victory and is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.
We targeted Travis Etienne in the same matchup last week, and he came dangerously close before ceding time in the fourth quarter of a blowout. That’s less of a risk here, with the Bucs featuring a worse defense and being just four-point favorites.
I’ll be hedging this prop slightly with a ladder of White’s rushing yardage overs, up to 100+ at +270. His overs aren’t the obvious value that Etienne’s were last week (the 70.5 line is basically in line with Koerner’s projection) but this strategy provides some safety if I’m directionally correct (White has a big game) but another back picks up even more yards.
Pick: Rachaad White: Most Rushing Yards on Sunday (+1100)
Jets vs. Patriots
By Billy Ward
Full disclosure: I have no clue how to accurately price this prop. That’s a good thing in this instance as the chances of this prop hitting the "yes" negatively correlates with the total – meaning lower totals are better for the "no" side.
This game has a total of just 30 as of Saturday, which would be tied for the lowest over/under in 30 years, with the other game also happening this year.
When originally looking into this bet I lumped all games under 40 into a single bucket due to their (at the time) infrequency. Those games hit the "no" side a bit over 50% of the time, so any plus-money line on the "no" would hold value. I’d speculate that all games with a total under 30 — if we looked back far enough to have a reasonable sample size — hit this prop considerably more frequently.
It helps that the spread – a more predictive measure of this prop than the total – is reasonably close as well at just 2.5.
I’m not confident in a betting threshold for this one since an accurate price requires heavy extrapolation, but I am confident the odds should start with a – sign, not a +.
Pick: Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores (+105)
Check out the new-user BetMGM bonus code offer before placing your bets on Jets-Pats.
Bears vs. Packers
By Billy Ward
The Packers enter a must-win Week 18 matchup having scored at least 20 points in six straight games thanks to an offense that finally seems to have gelled around Jordan Love.
With all the improvements offensively, they’re still only 8-8 on the season due to a defense that's allowed a bit over 23 PPG in that span. They’ve been considerably worse than their points allowed numbers indicate, ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass and 26th against the run.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago has also played well offensively, averaging more than 27 PPG over the last month. That includes a game against an elite Browns defense in which Chicago scored just 17. The Bears have averaged over 30 in the other three games in that span.
Chicago and Justin Fields should be motivated to play this one hard. For the Bears, they’d relish a chance to play spoiler against the rival Packers. For Fields, he could be playing for a job with Chicago holding the top pick (via Carolina) in the 2024 NFL draft.
My hypothesis is the market is reacting to “January game at Lambeu Field” and assuming tough conditions will limit scoring. However, forecasted temperatures are above freezing, with no precipitation and single-digit wind speeds. That accounts for the inefficiency on the total, which, by my estimation, should be 2-3 points higher.
I’d take this line up to 46 at standard juice (-110).
Pick: Over 45 (-109)
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
By Nick Giffen
The highest total on the slate, Buffalo vs. Miami, is a Luck Under, as is the game with the third-highest total, Dallas vs. Washington. Both of these games are not only Luck Unders, but fit an extra criteria of being a Luck Under where two teams meet in the same season for a second time, which has a 67% hit rate to the under.
Meanwhile, Seattle and Arizona have a neutral Luck Total so there’s no reason to think that total could be off. In addition, since Arizona’s bye week, its offense has been clicking, averaging an offensive Expected Score of 21.9 PPG compared to just 16.8 prior to the bye week. That’s despite facing two tough defenses in San Francisco and Chicago.
If Arizona’s offense continues to operate at that rate, this game should set up as the one with the best chance of ending up the highest scoring on Sunday.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game on Sunday (+500)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
