NFL Predictions Week 7: Data-Driven Picks, Props
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Love.
NFL Predictions Week 7: Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs. Commanders
By Billy Ward
Three games this week are tied for the lowest total on the board, with Commanders vs. Giants, Raiders vs. Bears and Falcons vs. Bucs all coming in at 37 or 37.5 depending on the sportsbook.
I’m on Commanders-Giants to be the ugliest game of the week though, primarily thanks to horrible play from both offensive lines.
The Commanders have been historically bad at blocking for Sam Howell, with the second-year quarterback on pace to set the record for most sacks taken in the season. They rank 32nd in adjusted sack rate as well, meaning it’s not just a function of a pass-heavy approach.
The story isn’t much better for the Giants, who are 31st in adjusted sack rate and have allowed just one fewer sack than the Commanders. (Missing Week 5 has Daniel Jones safe from challenging for the all-time sacks record, at least for now.)
The Giants are also banged up on offense, with starting left tackle Andrew Neal out, starting right tackle Evan Neal questionable with a DNP on Friday and backup tackle Matt Peart also out.
That means the Giants could be down to their fourth and fifth tackle, while also missing their starting center. Daniel Jones is also doubtful to suit up, which isn't a huge factor – Tyrod Taylor is a well above-average backup – but certainly helps.
Pick: Lowest Scoring Game (+550)
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Raiders vs. Bears
By Sean Koerner
Jacobs had a career year in 2022, but he has struggled this season at just 2.9 yards per carry. He only has two rushes that have cleared this number all season.
We can’t expect Jacobs to be this inefficient moving forward, and I’m using closer to a 3.8 yards per rush distribution for him in this week’s matchup against the Bears, who rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and 17th against the run. LB T.J. Edwards has been excellent against the run and will be key in preventing Jacobs from getting into the open field.
Jacobs has been more efficient in the passing game, and that’s where the Bears struggle against RBs. Seven RBs this season have three or more receptions in six games against Chicago this year. I expect Brian Hoyer to lean on dump-offs to Jacobs here.
Jacobs should see 16-20 rush attempts, but the Bears will be ready for them. Hoyer under center means they can focus on trying to contain Jacobs.
I’m projecting his median closer to 14.5 with a 63% chance to stay under this number.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Under 16.5 Longest Rush (-120)
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Browns vs. Colts
By Billy Ward
Part of my process for live betting games is maintaining a database of how a team’s pace of play differs in various situations. As part of that, I look at team pace of play in the first half of games compared to the second half, to see if there’s an appreciable difference in how fast they play.
The bulk of that is a function of their typical game script in the second half of games. Teams with bad records tend to play quicker in the second, as they spend most of the time trailing and trying to chase points.
However, occasionally teams pick up or slow down the pace for systemic reasons. That tends to show up as teams with .500 or better records that combine for quicker second halves – or the inverse.
One such example is the Colts, who rank second in second-half pace of play with a 3-3 record. Another example is the Browns, who are 3-2, but check in at 14th in second-half pace. We’d expect the Browns to be below average based on their record, with the Colts roughly in the middle.
All told, this one should play about 3.6 seconds quicker per play in the second half than the first in a neutral game script, which in theory should lead to more scoring.
Pick: Highest Scoring Half: 2nd (-110)
Packers vs. Broncos
By Billy Ward
With scoring down across the league over the last year and a half, books have had to lower the lines on the “no” side of this prop. However, we’re still seeing books base their pricing more on the total of the game, rather than the spread.
As we’ve explored at length, the spread correlates with the result of this prop at more than twice the level of the total. Therefore, books giving better prices on higher total games still provide some value.
Which brings us to Packers vs. Broncos, which most books have lined as just a one-point spread. The fair line on “no” for all games with a spread of one is a bit below +120, giving us a reasonable edge here.
This total is still on the lower side of my sample size, so the real odds are a bit better than the +120 for all games with a spread at this point. This is my favorite game for this prop this week by a long shot, but I’m also betting Raiders-Bears at the same odds.
Pick: Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+135)
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