Monday Night Football in Week 2 features a doubleheader, as the Buccaneers face the Texans and the Chargers square off against the Raiders.
Baker Mayfield looks to lead Tampa Bay’s passing attack, while Rachaad White gives the Bucs balance on the ground. In the AFC West clash, Najee Harris is set to play a key role in the Chargers’ backfield, and Geno Smith aims to deliver for the Raiders in primetime.
For my top NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m spotlighting Mayfield, White, Harris, and Smith under the lights.
Baker Mayfield
More Than 32.5 Passing Attempts
The Buccaneers had a pass-heavy offense in 2024, and that trend stayed true in Week 1 as Baker Mayfield dropped back to pass 32 times, which accounted for 59% of their plays.
We should see that go up slightly in this matchup as the Bucs are underdogs, which points to a trailing game script. If they are behind, we should see them play fast — as they typically do since they rank third in seconds per play — to counteract the Texans' pace, which was the third slowest.
Additionally, Mayfield and the Bucs should have success through the air. The Texans rank 27th in yards per pass and 28th in opponent completion percentage.
All signs point to Mayfield slinging the rock a lot tonight.
Rachaad White
More Than 10.5 Rushing Yards
Bucs lead back Bucky Irving gets a ton of love from the fantasy community, and rightfully so, but his backup, Rachaad White, has a small role in the offense and has proven to be productive.
With nearly 8.5 attempts per game, White averaged 4.1 yards per carry. In Week 1, his role was severely diminished as he got just two carries but still surpassed this total, gaining 14 yards.
While Irving is the bell-cow back, we should see White get a handful of carries — and with that, he's a strong pick for more than this total.
Najee Harris
More Than 15.5 Rushing Yards
For the next pick, I am switching games but attacking the same angle.
Najee Harris was initially brought in to be the lead back for the Chargers. However, an offseason fireworks accident put his role in jeopardy.
Although Harris made it back in time to be active for the Chargers' first game against Kansas City, he got just one carry for five yards. While that workload is not significant, we should expect his role to expand as he needs game reps to get up to speed with the offense.
Rookie Omarion Hampton had little success on the ground in Week 1 — the Chargers should be expected to give Harris a few more looks tonight. If we see that, he should clear this total with ease.
Geno Smith
Less Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Lastly, we flip sides and turn our attention to Raiders quarterback Geno Smith, who was brought in as both an upgrade at the position and to provide a veteran presence for a young offense.
Keep in mind, Smith is also now in Pete Carroll's run-heavy offensive scheme, although we didn't see that tendency until they entered the red zone, where the Raiders threw the ball just once despite having a 61% pass play rate overall.
It's clear Carroll wants to use rookie RB Ashton Jeanty to grind the ball into the end zone when given the opportunity. While Smith has big receiving options like Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, the lone red-zone target went to Michael Mayer.
We can use this to fade Smith as it's unlikely we see him toss two touchdowns with little opportunity against a Chargers secondary that was great in the red zone against Kansas City.
