With a pair of games scheduled for Monday Night Football, the Sunday main slate is trimmed down to a dozen games. We still have plenty of intriguing matchups, headlined by the Eagles traveling to New Orleans to take on the high-powered Saints and the Ravens visiting Dallas in a showdown of underperforming squads.
With two weeks of data, it's key to focus on opportunities. It's still a bit early to take too much away from the matchups, but we should already have a good feel for who is and isn't involved in each offense.
Let's get into my NFL PrizePicks plays for the Sunday slate.
Josh Jacobs
More Than 74.5 Rushing Yards
Green Bay has also been snake-bitten on the injury front, and it started in the offseason. AJ Dillon hit IR before the season even started, and now MarShawn Lloyd is right there with him. That leaves Emanuel Wilson as the lone RB behind Jacobs.
Lloyd played in Week 2 after missing Week 1 and saw 6 carries on 10 snaps. Wilson mixed in for 13 snaps and five carries. Jacobs still had a massive rushing share with 32 carries, but Lloyd's departure could boost his workload even more.
Jacobs also benefits from Jordan Love's absence. With Malik Willis under center in Week 2, Green Bay ran the ball an absurd 53 times. Head coach Matt LaFleur trusted Willis to air it out just 14 times, and he'd likely prefer single-digit attempts if possible.
Tennessee has some talented players up front (Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry and T'Vondre Sweat) and it has done a solid job against the run so far. The Titans have allowed the 10th-lowest yards per carry and the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game.
However, they've been vulnerable to zone concepts. Tennessee is allowing the fifth-highest yards per carry on zone runs, according to Fantasy Points Data. The Titans have been a brick wall against man/gap concepts, holding opponents to just 2.73 YPC (the fourth-best mark).
Only 17 of Jacobs' 47 carries have been zone runs, but he's excelled on them. Jacobs has the fourth-highest YPC on zone concepts among RBs with 10+ carries.
I would trust LaFleur to lean more on zone runs given Tennessee's struggles defending them. We could also just see another 30+ carries from Jacobs and none of the scheme efficiency stats will matter. The volume upside is unparalleled.
Brock Bowers
More Than 48.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of opportunities, Bowers has emerged as one of the premier tight ends in an offense throwing the ball at a surprising rate.
He's piled up 156 yards on 15 catches and 17 targets through two weeks. He's third in the league among tight ends in target share, behind only Trey McBride (makes sense) and Hunter Henry (LOL). Bowers leads all tight ends in targets. Perhaps more importantly, there's meat on the bone in terms of playing time.
Bowers was on the injury report in both Week 1 and Week 2 with a foot issue. He's played 68% of the snaps in each game, with backup tight end Michael Mayer right behind him (57%, 62%). Pro Football Focus pointed out that the Raiders had 42 snaps out of 11 personnel in Week 2, and Bowers only played 23. As he continues to get healthier, he could be on the field much more often.
The Raiders, somewhat shockingly, lead the league in passing rate. No team has thrown more often. Some of that has been due to game script, but they've also been horrendous running the ball.
Las Vegas is last in yards per carry (2.5) by a decent margin. The Panthers have been awful against the run, but they've also faced the Saints and Chargers. New Orleans looks like it has one of the best offenses in the league, and the Chargers appear to be an elite rushing team.
Andy Dalton's arrival is also a factor. Carolina's opponents have hardly thrown the ball because of game script. With an NFL-caliber quarterback under center, there's a much better chance this is more like a normal game. The spread has already come down a couple of points with the news that Dalton will draw the start.
Brandon Aiyuk
More Than 61.5 Receiving Yards
This was supposed to be a fun battle between a pair of NFC West foes and two of the best coaching minds in the league. Instead, we get two offenses decimated by injuries.
Los Angeles is basically barren outside of Kyren Williams at this point, but at least San Francisco has a couple of studs still standing. With Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel out, and George Kittle doubtful, Aiyuk should have a massive role.
Samuel has missed time frequently, so we have a decent sample of Aiyuk's performance with him on the sidelines. Aiyuk posted 166 receiving yards on 10 catches and 15 targets in two games without Samuel in 2023. In 2022, Aiyuk averaged 5.5 catches and 70.5 receiving yards in the four games Samuel missed.
Game scripts have led to minimal passing volume for the Rams' opponents, but the results have been amazing when teams have thrown the ball. They are allowing the highest yards per pass attempt in the league. They're giving up the most yards per reception to receivers by a significant margin.
A few big plays can skew those results, especially on limited volume, but the Rams came into the season with big questions in the secondary. Three cornerbacks were placed on IR before the season started (Darious Williams, Tre Tomlinson, Derion Kendrick), and then starting safety John Johnson III fractured his shoulder in Week 2. It's an extremely thin unit and one that can't rely on Aaron Donald to generate a pass rush anymore.
Aiyuk has disappointed over the first two weeks, but the volume should be there in an excellent matchup.
