NFL Pro System: How to Use ATS Records to Find Value in Week 8
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Redskins quarterback Case Keenum.
- Historically, NFL teams with bad ATS records have been undervalued by the betting market.
- Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable against-the-spread system that exploits this trend for Week 8.
The Vikings are on a roll. Kirk Cousins & Co. have won three consecutive games and, more importantly for bettors, have been cashing tickets. Minnesota has been one of the most profitable teams to start the season with a 5-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record.
The same cannot be said for its opponent on Thursday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, FOX). Washington has tasted victory once this season and is a dreadful 2-5 ATS.
Given each team’s current form, oddsmakers list the Vikings as 16.5-point favorites. Despite the large spread, more than 60% of spread tickets are on Minnesota to cover.
Odds as of Thursday at 10 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Vikings’ success on the field and at the ticket window has the attention of recreational bettors. But ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to buy low on teams with bad ATS records and fade those that have consistently cashed tickets.
Since 2003, teams that have covered 30% or less of their games, like the Redskins, have gone 683-606-32 (53.0%) ATS according to Bet Labs. If the team with a bad ATS record is facing an opponent with a winning ATS record, the team that has struggled to cover has gone 306-249-19 (55.01%) ATS.
The data backs up our theory. Clearly, oddsmakers inflate lines against good ATS teams, which creates value backing bad ATS squads.
The optimal time to employee this strategy is after the first month of the season once teams have established a winning and losing ATS record.
Since 2003, bettors following this Pro System have gone 167-104-9 (61.6%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,381.
Casual bettors are often influenced by recent performance. Gamblers think fondly of teams that have covered and swear off the ones that have cost them money. Oddsmakers exploit this mindset by making the public take bad lines with teams that have winning ATS records.
Savvy bettors can turn a profit by buying low on teams with bad ATS records in matchup against opponents with winning ATS records. The Redskins are one of three matches for this Pro System in Week 8.
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Week 8 Matches:
- Redskins +16 at Vikings (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Giants +7 at Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Eagles +1.5 at Bills (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX)