NFL Prop Pick: Bet Joe Mixon’s Under for Bengals vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football

Credit:

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Mixon

  • Joe Mixon rushed for 69 yards in the Bengals' season opener, but he'll have a tougher time finding traction against the Browns.
  • Find out why the under on his rushing yardage prop bet for Thursday Night Football is offering value.

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop for every primetime game throughout the 2020 season — he’s 3-1 so far and has a 203-140-3 (59.2%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Thursday Night Football below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.


NFL Prop Bet: Bengals vs. Browns

  • The Pick: Joe Mixon Under 71.5 Rush Yards (-110)
  • Bet Now: FanDuel

The Browns’ defensive line was the lone bright spot in their 38-6 loss to the Ravens. Cleveland managed to keep Baltimore’s lethal rushing attack in check and limited Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to a combined 21 rushes for 68 yards (3.23 yards per attempt) on the ground.

Football Outsiders credited the Browns with 2.64 Adjusted Line Yards, ranked as the fourth-stingiest from Week 1.

The Bengals offensive line will be down a starter on Thursday night as Xavier Su’a-Filo is out with an ankle injury. Their offensive line will be outmatched by the Browns’ front four, so Joe Mixon won’t have many running lanes open.

Mixon, to no surprise, dominated the rushing work out of the backfield in Week 1. He racked up 19 carries against the Chargers while Gio Bernard had only one rush. I expect similar usage on Thursday night, but the overall rush attempts could be down — the Bengals offense became very pass-heavy when trailing in Week 1, throwing at a 74% rate when behind (seventh-highest).

Considering the Bengals are 6-point underdogs against the Browns (find real-time odds here), we could see a more pass-heavy game script, limiting Mixon’s rush attempts.

I have Mixon projected for 17.5 carries and 69 yards. Using my player prop simulator — which I use to simulate the game 10,000 times — I have his median projection closer to 65.5 yards. It also shows a 59% chance he goes under the 71.5-yard total.

I would bet this down to 68.5, where it would still have a 55% chance of hitting.

Here’s a breakdown of other yardages in this range to compare to the line at your book:

Yards
Over
Under
68
45%
55%
69
44%
56%
70
42%
58%
71
41%
59%
72
41%
59%
73
40%
60%
74
39%
61%
75
38%
62%
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